This is one of those weeks where a lot of important stories are landing at once. Five major retailers — Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, TJX, and Walmart — are all reporting earnings within a few days of each other. That’s happening right after a July retail sales report that came in weaker than expected. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is releasing the minutes from its last meeting, where policymakers were unusually split on what to do next. And Apple just got one of the boldest price-target increases we’ve seen on Wall Street this year.
None of these stories exist in a vacuum. Together, they paint a picture of a stock market sitting near record highs while asking a genuinely open question underneath: how much longer can American shoppers keep spending the way they have been? This week’s earnings reports are about to give us a real answer.
Below, we walk through the 10 U.S. stocks most likely to move markets this week, why they made the list, and what to watch for in each case.
Quick Answer / TL;DR
- Five major retailers — Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), and Walmart (WMT) — report earnings this week, making it the most concentrated real-time check on U.S. consumer spending in months.
- July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, missing expectations for a small gain, setting a cautious tone heading into these reports.
- Apple (AAPL) was upgraded to Buy with a $400 price target (up from $260) by Rothschild & Co Redburn, largely on the strength of an expected foldable iPhone.
- The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held interest rates steady on July 29 in an unusually divided vote — the minutes are released Wednesday.
- Oil prices remain elevated because of the ongoing Iran war, which continues to pressure consumer wallets at the gas pump.
- The S&P 500 is near record highs with market volatility (the VIX) near multi-month lows — meaning investors currently expect a fairly calm week, despite the packed calendar.
Why This Week Matters
Retail sales are one of the clearest windows we have into how everyday Americans are actually doing financially. So when the U.S. Census Bureau reported that July retail sales fell 0.6% from June — well below the small gain economists expected — it raised a question that this week’s earnings reports are about to answer directly: was that a one-month blip, or the start of something more persistent?
Adjusted for inflation, sales volumes actually fell 0.7%, and some of the weakness came from lower gas station receipts (prices at the pump have eased slightly, though they remain roughly a dollar per gallon higher than before the Iran war began) and a pullback in auto purchases. That’s a mixed signal — part “consumers are pulling back,” part “prices are just moving around.”
This is exactly why the timing of this week’s retail earnings matters so much. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, TJX, and Walmart aren’t just reporting quarterly numbers — they’re giving us a real, current-week read on whether shoppers are still spending, trading down to cheaper options, or pulling back altogether.
Layer on top of that a Federal Reserve that just delivered its most divided vote in nearly a decade, and an oil market still reacting to the Iran war, and you have a week where the story isn’t just “which stocks go up or down” — it’s “what does the U.S. economy actually look like right now.”
This Week’s Economic Calendar
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tue, Aug 18 | Building Permits (Jul, prelim.) & NAHB Housing Index | Early housing-demand read, relevant to HD and LOW |
| Wed, Aug 19 | Housing Starts & Building Permits (Jul) | Fuller housing-market picture for the week |
| Wed, Aug 19 | FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting) | The week’s most important scheduled event |
| Thu, Aug 20 | Initial Jobless Claims | Real-time labor market check |
| Thu, Aug 20 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | Industrial-sector sentiment, relevant to Deere |
| Thu, Aug 20 | Existing Home Sales (Jul) | Another housing-market data point |
| Fri, Aug 21 | S&P Global Flash PMIs | Broad read on manufacturing and services activity |
What is the FOMC and why do its minutes matter? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the group inside the Federal Reserve that sets U.S. interest rate policy. The “minutes” are a detailed written account of their meeting, released about three weeks after the decision itself. They matter because they often reveal disagreements or reasoning that wasn’t obvious from the original announcement — and this particular meeting had an unusually large disagreement to unpack.
This Week’s Earnings Calendar
| Company | Ticker | Report Date | Consensus EPS | Consensus Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Depot | HD | Tue, Aug 18 (AM) | $4.73 | ~$45.3B |
| Target | TGT | Wed, Aug 19 (AM) | ~$2.25 | ~$26.1B |
| Lowe’s | LOW | Wed, Aug 19 (AM) | ~$4.24 | — |
| Analog Devices | ADI | Wed, Aug 19 (PM) | $3.34 | ~$3.91B |
| TJX Companies | TJX | Wed, Aug 19 (AM) | $1.19 | ~$15.18B |
| Estée Lauder | EL | Wed, Aug 19 (AM) | $0.32 | ~$3.55B |
| Walmart | WMT | Thu, Aug 20 (AM) | $0.73–$0.74 | ~$186.3–$186.7B |
| Alibaba | BABA | Thu, Aug 20 | — | China cloud/AI growth in focus |
| Deere & Co. | DE | Thu, Aug 20 | $4.85 | — |
Note: These are analyst consensus estimates, not guarantees — the whole point of earnings season is finding out whether reality matches (or beats, or misses) those expectations.
Top 10 U.S. Stocks to Watch This Week
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Sector | Trend | Confidence | Volatility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apple | AAPL | Technology | Bullish | 78% | Medium |
| 2 | Walmart | WMT | Cons. Staples | Bullish | 68% | High |
| 3 | Home Depot | HD | Cons. Discretionary | Neutral-Bullish | 60% | High |
| 4 | Target | TGT | Cons. Discretionary | Neutral | 55% | High |
| 5 | Lowe’s | LOW | Cons. Discretionary | Bullish | 62% | Med-High |
| 6 | TJX Companies | TJX | Cons. Discretionary | Bullish | 65% | Medium |
| 7 | Analog Devices | ADI | Technology | Neutral-Bullish | 58% | Medium |
| 8 | Alibaba | BABA | Comm. Services | Neutral | 55% | High |
| 9 | Deere & Co. | DE | Industrials | Neutral | 52% | Medium |
| 10 | Estée Lauder | EL | Cons. Staples | Bearish-Neutral | 48% | High |
Build a Watchlist for This Week’s Top 10
Apple, Walmart, Home Depot, Target and the rest of this week’s featured stocks all report or move within days of each other. TradingView lets you build a free watchlist, set price alerts, and follow live charts as each earnings report lands.
Open a Free TradingView Account →1. Apple (AAPL)
Apple didn’t need earnings to become this week’s biggest story. On Monday, analyst firm Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy and nearly doubled its price target — from $260 to $400, implying roughly 31% upside from Friday’s close. A price target is an analyst’s projection of where they think a stock will trade, distinct from their overall rating (like Buy or Hold).
The reasoning centers on two things: an expected foldable iPhone launching in September, which the firm believes could meaningfully boost average selling prices, and a reported shift in Apple’s AI strategy toward open-source models. If the foldable launch goes smoothly, this could be the start of a broader re-rating. If it’s delayed or runs into hardware issues (like display or hinge problems), the rally built on this narrative could unwind quickly.
2. Walmart (WMT)
Walmart reports Thursday morning, and its results will likely set the tone for how the rest of the retail earnings cluster trades. As the largest retailer touching nearly every income bracket, Walmart is often the single best real-world gauge of how consumers overall are feeling. With July retail sales soft and gas prices still elevated, the key question is whether Walmart continues gaining share from shoppers trading down — or whether the slowdown is broad enough to hit even the low-price leader.
3. Home Depot (HD)
Home Depot reports first among the retail cohort, Tuesday morning. It’s a useful read on big-ticket, housing-linked spending — the kind of purchase people delay when financing costs are high. This week’s housing data (building permits, housing starts) will be read right alongside Home Depot’s commentary on “Pro” (professional contractor) spending, which has held up better than DIY spending in recent quarters.
4. Target (TGT)
Target has the most binary setup of the week. Its stock has lagged peers for a while now, so expectations — and the potential for a big move in either direction — are elevated. A sign of stabilizing traffic and inventory discipline could spark a relief rally; more of the same market-share loss to Walmart and off-price retailers would likely extend the stock’s underperformance.
5. Lowe’s (LOW)
Lowe’s reports the same morning as Target and shares much of Home Depot’s story — a bellwether for housing-related spending, with Pro-customer trends as the key swing factor. Together, HD and LOW give readers a clearer, two-part picture of housing-linked consumer health than either report alone.
6. TJX Companies (TJX)
TJX, the parent of T.J. Maxx and Marshalls, is positioned as a potential winner of exactly the trend showing up in the retail-sales data: trade-down behavior, where consumers shift spending from full-price retailers to discount alternatives. If the July slowdown reflects budget-conscious shoppers rather than a full pullback, off-price retailers like TJX are often among the first to benefit.
7. Analog Devices (ADI)
Analog Devices offers something different from the retail-heavy calendar: a read on industrial and automotive semiconductor demand, separate from the AI-chip trade dominating headlines elsewhere. A steady or improving report here would suggest the broader industrial economy is holding up, even as consumer spending shows cracks.
8. Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba reports Thursday, and investors will be watching two things at once: the health of the Chinese consumer, and the pace of growth in Alibaba’s cloud and AI infrastructure business. It’s a useful cross-check against the AI-spending story playing out in U.S. markets, from a very different vantage point.
9. Deere & Co. (DE)
Deere gives readers a window into a part of the economy rarely covered in weekly stock roundups: farm equipment demand. With farm income under pressure and financing costs still elevated, Deere’s report will show whether large-equipment purchases are stabilizing or continuing to slide.
10. Estée Lauder (EL)
Estée Lauder rounds out the list as the week’s highest-uncertainty print. The beauty and luxury giant has been in a multi-year turnaround, and its heavy exposure to Chinese consumers and travel retail makes this report unusually sensitive to how China’s economy is performing. Given how depressed expectations already are, either a modest sign of stabilization or a fresh disappointment could move the stock sharply.
Sector Outlook
Consumer Discretionary and Staples are the clear focus this week, given the sheer volume of retail earnings. Off-price names like TJX may benefit from trade-down behavior, while housing-linked names like Home Depot and Lowe’s are more exposed to interest-rate sensitivity.
Technology and Semiconductors carry a bullish tilt this week, led by Apple’s upgrade and a supportive setup for Analog Devices, even as the broader AI trade continues digesting concentration-risk concerns tied to Nvidia’s reported financing arrangement (Nvidia itself doesn’t report earnings until August 26, outside this week’s window, but the debate around AI spending remains relevant background).
Energy remains structurally elevated due to the ongoing Iran war and the disrupted Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, critical shipping channel through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes. That keeps gasoline prices higher than they’d otherwise be, which is a direct drag on discretionary spending elsewhere in the economy.
Industrials get a distinct data point from Deere, offering a read on the agricultural equipment cycle that’s separate from the consumer and tech stories dominating the week.
See the Sector Rotation as Earnings Roll In
Retail, semiconductors, and energy are pulling in different directions this week. TradingView’s screeners and heat maps make it easy to compare S&P 500 sectors side by side as Wednesday’s and Thursday’s results come through.
Explore TradingView Charts →Best Trade Setups: Bullish vs. Bearish Ideas
The following reflects catalyst-driven positioning ideas based on this week’s calendar — not personalized investment advice. Always consider your own risk tolerance and do your own research.
| Bullish Setups | Why |
|---|---|
| Apple (AAPL) | Major analyst upgrade, foldable iPhone catalyst |
| TJX Companies (TJX) | Trade-down beneficiary amid soft retail sales |
| Lowe’s (LOW) | Pro-channel resilience into housing data week |
| Home Depot (HD) | First major retail print, Pro-spending strength |
| Walmart (WMT) | Broadest trade-down share-gain story |
| Bearish / Higher-Risk Setups | Why |
|---|---|
| Estée Lauder (EL) | Depressed estimates, China/travel-retail uncertainty |
| Target (TGT) | Ongoing traffic and market-share pressure |
| Deere & Co. (DE) | Persistent farm-income and financing headwinds |
| Rate-sensitive REITs | Exposed to a hawkish Fed-minutes surprise |
Biggest Risks to Watch
A hawkish Fed surprise. The Fed’s July decision was unusually divided — a 9-3 vote with three regional bank presidents dissenting, the first three-way split since 2016. New Chair Kevin Warsh has been explicit that “there is no soft inflation target,” signaling reluctance to cut rates even as growth data softens. If Wednesday’s minutes lean hawkish, expect Treasury yields (currently near 4.70% on the 10-year) to rise and rate-sensitive stocks to come under pressure.
A broader retail earnings miss. With five major retailers reporting in a single week, right after a soft retail sales print, there’s real risk that more than one report disappoints — which could quickly shift the market narrative from “resilient consumer” to “consumer slowdown.”
Oil-price escalation. The Iran war remains the single largest tail risk on this list. Any further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices meaningfully higher, adding fresh inflation pressure right as the Fed is already resistant to cutting rates.
Brent crude and the disrupted Strait of Hormuz are the single biggest driver behind this week’s elevated gas prices — and a drag on consumer discretionary names like Target and Home Depot. If you want to follow oil prices directly rather than just the stocks they affect, Pepperstone offers live pricing on Brent crude and other commodities.
Stretched valuations, low volatility pricing. The S&P 500 is near record highs, and the VIX — a measure of expected market volatility — sits near multi-month lows around 14.5. That combination means the market currently isn’t pricing much room for disappointment, which can amplify moves if any of this week’s reports miss expectations.
Key Takeaways
- Five major retailers — Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, TJX, and Walmart — report earnings this week, offering the clearest real-time test of U.S. consumer spending in months.
- July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, missing expectations, and set a cautious backdrop for this week’s reports.
- Apple was upgraded to Buy with a $400 price target (from $260), driven by an expected foldable iPhone and a shift in AI strategy.
- The Fed held rates steady in a rare 9-3 divided vote; minutes are released Wednesday and could move markets.
- The Iran war continues to keep oil and gasoline prices elevated, pressuring consumer wallets.
- Gold has surged roughly 32% year-over-year as a hedge against policy and geopolitical uncertainty; Bitcoin remains stuck below key resistance.
- The S&P 500 is near record highs with low volatility pricing, leaving little room for earnings disappointments this week.
- TJX and other off-price retailers may benefit from consumers trading down; Target and Estée Lauder carry the highest-uncertainty setups.
- Analog Devices, Alibaba, and Deere offer diversified reads on semiconductors, China, and industrials beyond the retail story.
- Nvidia doesn’t report until August 26, but AI-spending concentration risk remains a background theme worth watching.
FAQ
What are the top US stocks to watch this week?
Our ranked list includes Apple, Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, TJX Companies, Analog Devices, Alibaba, Deere, and Estée Lauder — chosen for their earnings catalysts and potential to move markets between August 17–21, 2026.
When do Walmart, Target, and Home Depot report earnings?
Home Depot reports Tuesday, August 18, before the market opens. Target and Lowe’s report Wednesday, August 19, before the market opens. Walmart reports Thursday, August 20, before the market opens.
Why was Apple stock upgraded to a $400 price target?
Analyst firm Rothschild & Co Redburn upgraded Apple to Buy, citing an expected foldable iPhone launch in September and a strategic shift toward open-source AI models that could reduce Apple’s reliance on Google.
What did the Federal Reserve decide about interest rates in July 2026?
The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with three regional Fed presidents dissenting — the first three-way dissent since 2016. Minutes from that meeting are released this week, on Wednesday, August 19.
How is the Iran war affecting the stock market?
The war has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, keeping crude oil and gasoline prices elevated. That raises costs for consumers and adds inflation pressure, which is one reason the Fed has been cautious about cutting rates.
Why is gold price so high right now?
Gold has risen to roughly $4,395 per ounce, up about 32% over the past year, as investors use it to hedge against Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk from the Iran war.
What is a good way to track these stocks throughout the week?
Many investors use charting and watchlist platforms like TradingView to follow price action, set alerts, and track the specific catalysts (like earnings dates) covered in this article in real time.
Related Reading
- Top 10 US Stocks to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
- Top 10 UK Stocks to Watch This Week (Aug 10–14, 2026)
- Top 10 Asian Stocks to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
- Top 10 Forex Pairs and Commodities to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
- Crypto Market Outlook: Whales Are Buying While Fear Lingers Ahead of CPI
Conclusion
This week doesn’t have one single headline — it has several, and they’re all connected. A soft retail-sales report sets the stage for five major companies to show us, in real numbers, how U.S. consumers are actually doing. A divided Federal Reserve is about to reveal more of its internal thinking at a moment when inflation, growth, and oil prices are all pulling in different directions. And Apple’s dramatic upgrade reminds us that even in a data-heavy week, a single analyst call can move markets on its own.
With the S&P 500 near record highs and volatility pricing near multi-month lows, markets currently expect this week to go smoothly. Whether that expectation holds will depend less on forecasts and more on what Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and the rest of this week’s reporters actually say when they open their books.
Want to track these stocks and this week’s key levels in real time? Explore charts and watchlists on TradingView to follow the names covered in this article as the week unfolds.
Disclosure: The content on this page was produced with AI writing assistance under the editorial direction of a licensed Electrical Engineering practitioner and certified investor in different markets with over a decade of experience. All articles are reviewed and approved by the author before publication.
