Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Stock Analysis

Energy Development Corporation (EDC) was incorporated and registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 5, 1976 to primarily engage in the business of exploring, developing and operating geothermal energy and other indigenous renewable energy projects in the Philippines, and utilizing geothermal energy and other indigenous renewable energy sources for electricity generation.

EDC became a subsidiary of Red Vulcan Holdings Corporation on November 29, 2007.

EDC’s geothermal power projects engage in two principal activities:

  • The production of geothermal steam for use at EDC and its subsidiaries’ geothermal power plants;
  • The generation and sale of electricity through those geothermal power plants pursuant to take-or-pay power offtake arrangements.

EDC operates commercial operations in four of its 14 geothermal service contract areas namely, Tongonan geothermal project; Southern Negros geothermal project; Bacon-Manito geothermal project; and Mt. Apo geothermal project.

EDC also operates a hydroelectric power plant through its 60%-owned subsidiary, First Gen Hydro Power Corporation. The Company likewise holds 11 wind energy service contracts covering areas in Ilocos Norte, Sorsogon, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental; and five solar energy service contracts covering areas in Ilocos Norte, Negros Occidental, North Cotabato, and Cebu.

In separate occasions in 2015, EDC received the feed-in-tariff certificate of compliance for the 150 MW Burgos wind energy project and 4 MW Burgos solar power project in Ilocos Norte.

The Company’s subsidiaries include:

  • EDC Drillco Corporation
  • EDC Geothermal Corp.
  • EDC Chile Limitada
  • EDC Holdings International Limited
  • EDC Wind Energy Holdings, Inc.
  • EDC Bright Solar Energy Holdings, Inc.

Sector Details:

  • Sector: Industrial
  • Subsector: Electricity, Energy, Power & Water

source: PSE Edge

Value Screen Scorecard

Stocks are scored based on Profitability & Growth, Financial Health, Quality, Dividends and Valuation. Each criterion in the list is scored based on financial data for a total of 100 points. Stocks are ranked from 1 to 5, 1 being the highest.

Read this post to get more information on how the value scorecard works.

Scoring Criteria:

  • Rank # 1: Extremely good company
  • Rank # 2: Good company
  • Rank # 3: Average company
  • Rank # 4: Needs further study and research to identify the company’s weaknesses
  • Rank # 5: Risky company

Value Scorecard (1-25-2017 3Q2016)

Profitability & Growth

Criteria

Values

Score

Criteria # 1: Market capitalization

106,262,154,811

1

Criteria # 2: Profit margins (5-yr. Average)

Gross profit margin

Operating profit margin

Net profit margin​

60.88%

30.98%

25.51%

7

Criteria # 3: Net income consistently growing for the last 5 years

-2

Criteria # 4: Revenue consistently growing for the last 5 years

1

Criteria #5: Cash & equivalents consistently growing for the past 5 years

1

Criteria # 6: Operating cash flow consistently growing for the past 5 years

1

Criteria # 7: Earnings per share consistently growing for the past 5 years

-2

Criteria # 8: 5-yr. EPS growth rate

3.85%

1

Criteria # 9: Return on equity

​3-yr. average

5-yr. average

Previous year’s ROE YoY growth​

20.34%

18.23%

-43.13%

4

Criteria # 10: Return on invested capital

5-yr. average

​10.40%

1

TOTAL POINTS

14/30

Financial Health

Criteria

Values

Score

Criteria # 1: Debt settlement capacity

Free cash flow

Long-term debt

​Current ratio

D/E ratio

Interest coverage ratio

Working capital to total debt ratio​

11,669,725,997

61,247,670,453

1.33

1.29

3.28

0.10

0

Criteria # 2: Cash to current assets

Current

Recent​

0.64

0.58

2

Criteria # 3: Inventory to current assets

Current

Recent​

0.11

0.12

4

Criteria # 4: Accounts receivable to current assets

Current

Recent​

0.17

0.22

4

Criteria # 5: Accounts payable to current assets

Current

Recent​

0.35

0.31

4

TOTAL POINTS

14/25

Quality

Criteria

Values

Score

Criteria # 1: Piotroski F-Score

7

7

Criteria # 2: Altman Z-Score

1.71

3

TOTAL POINTS

7/20

Dividend Assessment

Criteria

Values

Score

Criteria # 1: Dividend payout ratio

30.43%

5

Criteria # 2: Dividend yield

2.47%

3

TOTAL POINTS

8/10

Valuation

Criteria

Values

Score

Criteria # 1: PEGY ratio

1.95

0

TOTAL POINTS

0/15

Final Score & Ranking

Stock Rating

Score

Final Score

43/100

Stock Ranking

3

Piotroski F-Score

The Piotroski F-Score is a financial metric model that’s helpful in spotting turnaround businesses. For more information, you may read about it here.

Scoring Criteria:

  • 7 to 9 points: Wonderful business
  • 5 to 6 points: Average business
  • 1 to 4 points: Weak business

Piotroski F-Score (1-25-2017 3Q2016)

Piotroski F-Score

Values

Profitability:

1: Net income

2: Operating cash flow

3: Return on assets

4: Quality of earnings​

1

1

1

1​

Leverage:

5: Long-term debt vs. assets

6: Current ratio

7: Shares outstanding​

1

0

1

Operating efficiency:

8: Gross margin

9: Asset turnover​

1

0

Piotroski F-Score

7

Altman Z-Score

The Altman Z-Score is a bankruptcy prediction model that’s helpful in spotting low quality companies. More information about it can be found in this post here.

Scoring Criteria:

  • Z > 2.99; “SAFE” Zone (Healthy business)
  • Z < 1.81; “DISTRESS” Zone (Troubled business)
  • 1.81 > Z > 2.99; “GREY” Zone (Warrants more investigation)

Altman Z-Score (1-25-2017 3Q2016)

Altman Z-Score

Values

X1 (Working capital / Total assets)

0.0546

X2 (Retained earnings / Total assets)

0.1945

X3 (EBIT / Total assets)

0.1073

X4 (Market capitalization / Total liabilities)

1.1702

X5 (Revenue / Total assets)

0.2487

Altman Z-Score

1.71

Estimated Growth Rates

Estimated growth rates are calculated using exponential chart trend line formula.

Estimated Growth Rates (3Q2016)

Growth Rate

3-yr. (%)

5-yr. (%)

Revenue

9.89%

6.59%

Net income

14.30%

5.06%*

Earnings per share

13.91%

3.85%**

Operating cash flow​

12.09%

14.89%

Net income for FY2011 is negative so it was not included in the growth calculation.*

Earnings per share for FY2011 is negative so it was not included in the growth calculation.**

Intrinsic Value Calculations

The figures and all other variables used in order to get the intrinsic value are listed in detail below for reference purposes so that cross-checking can be made to verify the values obtained.

Intrinsic Value Calculations (1-25-2017 3Q2016)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital (WACC) Calculations

WACC Variables

Values

Risk free rate

Stock beta​

Market risk premium

Cost of equity (Re)

4.321%

0.99

8.10%

12.34%

Shares

Price

Market value of equity

18,741,120,778

5.67

106,262,154,811

Interest rate

Tax rate

Cost of debt (Rd)

6.23%

14.43%

5.33%

Debt book value

Adjustment​

Market value of debt

72,720,369,817

1.20

87,264,443,780

Total capital

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC)

193,526,598,592

9.18%

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Calculations

For more information regarding DCF analysis, you may read about it here.

DCF Variables

Values

Free cash flow

11,669,725,997

Projected growth rate

6.59%

Shares outstanding (diluted)

18,741,120,778

Discount rate (WACC)

9.18%

Perpetuity growth rate

2.60%

Margin of safety

25%

Intrinsic value per share

4.73

Adjusted intrinsic value per share

3.55

P/E Valuation Model

P/E Valuation Model Variables

Values

Input data:​

Earnings per share (TTM)

P/E ratio (TTM)​

Growth rate

Discount rate​

0.46

12.33

3.85%

9.18%

Calculations:

Year

EPS x Growth

1

2

3

4

​5

6

7

8

9

10

0.46

0.48

0.50

0.52

0.54

0.56

0.58

0.60

0.62

0.65

Value in 10 years

7.97

Margin of safety

25%

Intrinsic value

3.31

Adjusted intrinsic value

2.48

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