Top 10 Forex Pairs and Commodities to Watch This Week (August 17–21, 2026)

This week’s markets are stuck between two versions of the same institution. The Federal Reserve, now led by Chair Kevin Warsh, held interest rates steady in July — but the vote was 9 to 3, with three officials pushing for an immediate hike, and most projections still point to at least one more increase before year-end. At the same time, Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly said he expects a rate cut by September.

That gap between what the Fed is signaling and what the administration wants is the biggest story in global markets this week, and it will be tested directly on Wednesday, when the minutes from that July meeting are released.

Layered on top of that is a genuinely unpredictable Reserve Bank of Australia decision on Tuesday, a UK data calendar dense enough to move the pound on its own, and a Bank of Japan that has already signaled a September hike is on the table. Gold and silver remain the market’s clearest expression of uncertainty, while oil is caught in a tug-of-war between rising supply and a lingering geopolitical risk premium.

Below, we break down what’s happening in plain English, walk through the full economic calendar, and rank the top 10 Forex pairs and top 10 commodities worth watching between August 17 and August 21, 2026.

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Quick Answer: What to Watch This Week

• Wednesday, August 19: The FOMC minutes from the July meeting are this week’s single biggest event — markets want to know how serious the three-member push for an immediate hike really was.
• Tuesday, August 18: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate decision is genuinely too close to call, with commodity export strength (gold, iron ore, LNG) providing a floor for the Australian dollar either way.
• The UK faces three high-importance releases in one week — employment data (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), and retail sales (Friday) — making the pound one of the most independently active currencies this week.
• The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.00% in June and held in July, but has flagged that another hike as soon as September is on the table.
• Gold remains historically well bid, with large speculative traders holding roughly 130,800 net-long COMEX contracts, the kind of positioning that tends to amplify moves in either direction.
• Oil (WTI near $78–$82, Brent near $85–$86) is caught between recovering Gulf supply and record US output on one side, and Middle East risk on the other.
• Jackson Hole — the Fed’s annual policy symposium — runs August 27–29, and this week’s positioning is already building ahead of Chair Warsh’s first keynote there.

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Why This Week Matters: A Fed Caught Between Two Signals

The Hawkish Vote Nobody Fully Priced In

At its July meeting, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75%. On the surface, a hold sounds uneventful. But the vote itself was 9 to 3 — three policymakers wanted to raise rates immediately — and the Fed’s own Summary of Economic Projections (often called the “dot plot,” because each official’s rate forecast is plotted as a single dot) showed a majority still expect at least one more hike before the end of 2026. Six of those officials expect two.

Chair Kevin Warsh, in his second press conference since taking over the role, said the Fed “will deliver price stability” and would “not hesitate to act” if inflation doesn’t cooperate. That’s notably more hawkish language than markets had been pricing in only a few weeks earlier, when three soft inflation and labor reports had pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) down roughly 2% from its late-July high near 101.70 to the 99.5–99.8 area.

Complicating the picture further, Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly said he expects the Fed to cut rates by September — a rare, visible gap between the administration’s preference and the central bank’s own signaling. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes won’t resolve that tension outright, but they will show how deep the hawkish dissent actually ran, which is exactly the kind of detail that can move the dollar, Treasury yields, and gold sharply in either direction.

Why the RBA Decision Is a Genuine Coin-Flip

Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision is one of the least predictable central bank calls anywhere in the world this week. Strong commodity export earnings — gold, iron ore, and liquefied natural gas are all running above forecast — are giving the Australian dollar some underlying support regardless of the outcome. But whether the RBA holds with a hawkish tone or leans dovish will still be the single biggest swing factor for AUD this week, and by extension for AUD/JPY and AUD/USD.

Quick Reference: How Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes Could Move Markets

Scenario	Likely Dollar Reaction	Likely Gold Reaction	Likely Fed-Odds Reaction
Hawkish minutes (dissent looks broad)	Higher — hike bets firm	Lower — real yields rise	September hike odds rise further
Balanced minutes (dissent looks contained)	Modest, mixed reaction	Modest, mixed reaction	Little change to current split pricing
Dovish-leaning minutes (dissent looks isolated)	Lower — cut bets revive	Higher — hedging demand rises	September cut odds rise

This is a simplified guide, not a guarantee — actual market reactions depend on the full mix of data released that week and any geopolitical headlines in the background.

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This Week’s Economic Calendar (August 17–21, 2026)

Date	Event	Why It Matters
Mon, Aug 17	Japan Q2 GDP (Preliminary)	Confirms whether growth supports the BoJ’s case for a September hike
Tue, Aug 18	RBA Interest Rate Decision	This week’s most genuinely unpredictable central bank call — key for AUD
Tue, Aug 18	UK Labour Market Report	Sets the tone ahead of Wednesday’s UK CPI release
Wed, Aug 19	UK CPI (July)	Key input for the Bank of England’s September 17 decision
Wed, Aug 19	Canada CPI (July)	Shapes the Bank of Canada’s policy path and USD/CAD
Wed, Aug 19	FOMC Minutes (July Meeting)	This week’s single biggest catalyst — reveals how broad the hawkish dissent was
Thu, Aug 20	US Initial Jobless Claims	A routine but useful US labor-market temperature check
Thu, Aug 20	ECB Policy Accounts (July Meeting)	Detail behind the ECB’s July hold, ahead of its September 10 decision
Fri, Aug 21	UK Retail Sales (July)	Completes the week’s UK data trio, key for GBP
Fri, Aug 21	Flash Manufacturing & Services PMIs (US, UK, Eurozone)	Early growth-momentum read for three major economies at once

Beyond the scheduled calendar, keep an eye on retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart for a read on US consumer health, and on any fresh headlines from the Middle East, the US-China trade relationship, or Eastern Europe — all three remain live geopolitical risk factors capable of moving markets on any day, not just on scheduled release dates.

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Central Bank Watch: Who’s Hawkish, Who’s Not

Here’s the simplest way to think about where each major central bank stands right now. A “hawkish” central bank leans toward higher rates (or is reluctant to cut) because it’s more worried about inflation. A “dovish” one leans toward lower rates because it’s more worried about growth or jobs.

Federal Reserve — Rate: 3.50%–3.75%, Divided

The Fed held rates in July on a 9–3 vote, with three officials favoring an immediate hike. A majority of the committee’s own projections still point to at least one more increase in 2026, even as Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly called for a September cut. Wednesday’s minutes are the week’s most important single release.

European Central Bank — Deposit Rate: 2.25%, Neutral-to-Hawkish

The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23, following a 25-basis-point hike in June tied directly to Middle East-driven inflation pressure. Its next decision isn’t due until September 10, so Thursday’s policy accounts (the ECB’s version of meeting minutes) will mostly shape expectations for that meeting rather than move markets immediately.

Bank of England — Cautious, With an Upside Inflation Risk

UK inflation ran at 2.6% year-over-year in June, above the Bank’s 2% target, and the BoE’s own central projection sees it peaking near 3.2% in the fourth quarter. The Bank has said risks to that outlook are “tilted to the upside,” though it’s cautioned that Middle East developments could change the picture. With employment, CPI, and retail sales data all landing this week, the BoE’s September 17 decision could shift meaningfully by Friday.

Bank of Japan — Rate: 1.00%, Hawkish-Leaning

The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.00% in June and held steady in July, but has signaled it has entered a “new phase” that could justify another hike as early as September, as growth concerns ease and inflation pressure builds. Monday’s Q2 GDP data is an early test of whether that case holds up.

Reserve Bank of Australia — A Genuine Hold-vs-Hike Decision

Tuesday’s meeting is this week’s most binary central bank event. Strong commodity export earnings are providing a floor for the Australian dollar regardless of outcome, but a hawkish hold versus a dovish one will still drive the bulk of this week’s AUD movement.

Bank of Canada — Neutral

The BoC isn’t meeting this week, but Wednesday’s Canadian CPI report will shape expectations heading into its next decision. Some desks, including Scotiabank, are forecasting a firmer Canadian dollar into year-end.

Trade Smarter This Week: With a divided Fed, a coin-flip RBA decision, and an unresolved geopolitical backdrop all in play, this is exactly the kind of week where having the right tools matters. If you’re looking to actively trade the volatility in currencies and commodities, Pepperstone offers access to major Forex pairs and commodities with fast execution — worth a look if this week’s setup fits your strategy.

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Top 10 Forex Pairs to Watch This Week

Here’s how we’d rank the ten currency pairs most likely to see meaningful movement this week, based on scheduled data, central bank positioning, and known risk events.

Rank	Pair	Trend	Confidence	Primary Catalyst
1	USD/JPY	Neutral-to-bearish (USD)	70%	FOMC minutes vs. BoJ hike signaling
2	AUD/USD	Neutral	65%	RBA rate decision (Tuesday)
3	GBP/USD	Bullish (GBP)	65%	UK CPI, employment, retail sales cluster
4	EUR/USD	Neutral	60%	Flash PMIs, ECB accounts, Fed minutes
5	USD/CAD	Bearish (USD)	55%	Canadian CPI, oil price direction
6	AUD/JPY	Neutral	60%	Combined RBA + BoJ risk-sentiment signal
7	NZD/USD	Neutral	50%	Correlated to AUD/RBA outcome, China demand
8	USD/CHF	Neutral	50%	Safe-haven flows tied to geopolitical headlines
9	EUR/GBP	Bearish (EUR/GBP)	55%	Diverging UK vs. Eurozone data this week
10	USD/CNH	Bearish (USD)	50%	US-China trade friction, PBOC guidance

1. USD/JPY — The Cleanest Policy-Divergence Trade

Trading near 159.28, USD/JPY sits at the intersection of this week’s two biggest central-bank stories: a divided Fed and an increasingly hawkish BoJ. A hawkish reading of the FOMC minutes could push the pair back toward resistance at 160.55–161.90; a BoJ that reiterates its September hike bias, especially alongside soft US data, could pull it toward support at 158.58 and, further out, 155.22.

2. AUD/USD — Riding on Tuesday’s RBA Decision

Trading near 0.7049, AUD/USD is this week’s most binary setup. A hawkish hold from the RBA, paired with continued strength in gold, iron ore, and LNG exports, could lift the pair back above recent levels; a dovish tilt could extend the slide seen earlier in August.

3. GBP/USD — A Genuinely Data-Driven Pound

Trading near 1.3530, GBP/USD has three separate UK releases to digest this week. Hot CPI alongside resilient employment data would reinforce the Bank of England’s hawkish lean and could push the pair toward 1.36 and above; a weak retail sales print or soft wage growth could revive rate-cut speculation and pull GBP back toward support near 1.3432.

4. EUR/USD — Waiting on Two Sets of Minutes

Trading near 1.1570, EUR/USD remains below its key moving averages after pulling back from its 2026 high. A stronger-than-expected Eurozone flash PMI (manufacturing is forecast to edge up toward 52.0) combined with a dovish-leaning read on the FOMC minutes could lift the pair toward resistance at 1.1670; the reverse combination could pull it back toward support near 1.1429.

5. USD/CAD — An Oil and Inflation Trade in One

With Canadian CPI due Wednesday and oil stuck in a genuine tug-of-war, USD/CAD offers a clean read on both stories at once. Firmer Canadian inflation and a rebound in crude would support the loonie, consistent with desk forecasts (including Scotiabank) for a stronger Canadian dollar into year-end; a hawkish Fed and soft oil would work in the opposite direction.

6–10. AUD/JPY, NZD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, and USD/CNH

These five round out the list as useful barometers for risk sentiment, China-linked demand, and this week’s geopolitical backdrop. AUD/JPY is a clean risk-sentiment play with two independent catalysts (the RBA and the BoJ) in the same week. NZD/USD largely trades as an AUD proxy given a thin standalone New Zealand calendar. USD/CHF is the cleanest expression of this week’s geopolitical risk premium, strengthening the franc on any Middle East, Eastern Europe, or trade-war escalation. EUR/GBP offers a direct read on relative BoE-versus-ECB hawkishness, while USD/CNH remains the clearest currency expression of the broadening US-China trade dispute.

Want to track these pairs as the week unfolds? TradingView offers free charting tools, watchlists, and screeners that make it easy to monitor the pairs covered in this article.

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Top 10 Commodities to Watch This Week

From gold’s crowded positioning to oil’s tug-of-war between supply and risk, here are the ten commodities worth following this week.

Rank	Commodity	Trend	Confidence	Primary Driver
1	Gold	Bullish	75%	Fed policy uncertainty, geopolitical hedge demand, central bank buying
2	Silver	Bullish	70%	Follows gold, plus industrial demand tailwind
3	WTI Crude	Neutral	55%	Gulf supply recovery vs. Middle East risk premium
4	Brent Crude	Neutral	55%	Same drivers as WTI, plus European demand
5	Natural Gas	Neutral	50%	Seasonal demand, storage levels
6	Copper	Neutral-to-bullish	55%	China demand signals, US-China trade headlines
7	Platinum	Neutral	50%	Follows the precious metals complex
8	Palladium	Neutral	45%	Auto-sector demand, thin liquidity
9	Wheat	Neutral	50%	Black Sea and Eastern Europe geopolitical risk
10	Corn	Neutral	45%	US crop conditions, export demand

Gold: Well Bid, but Crowded

Gold remains historically well supported, with large speculative traders (“managed money,” in CFTC language) holding a net-long position of roughly 130,800 COMEX contracts as of the most recent report — a heavily one-sided base built on persistent central bank buying, real-yield uncertainty, and demand for a hedge against both inflation and geopolitical risk. A hawkish surprise in Wednesday’s FOMC minutes is the clearest risk to that positioning; renewed geopolitical tension is the clearest upside catalyst.

Silver: The Higher-Beta Precious Metal

Silver is tracking gold’s strength with an added industrial-demand tailwind, and some analysts see room for a run into the $60s per ounce by year-end. CFTC data shows managed money net long roughly 12,000 COMEX contracts — smaller than gold’s position, but directionally consistent, and prone to sharper swings given silver’s smaller market size.

WTI and Brent Crude: A Genuine Two-Sided Trade

WTI has settled into a roughly $78–$82 per barrel range as recovering Persian Gulf flows and record US output offset OPEC+ production discipline and Middle East supply risk; Brent sits modestly higher, with bank forecasts (J.P. Morgan around $86, the EIA around $85 for the third quarter) suggesting room to firm if supply risk resurfaces. A confirmed inventory build would pressure prices lower; a fresh Middle East supply disruption headline could push both benchmarks sharply higher.

Natural Gas, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, Wheat, and Corn

These six round out the commodities complex with lower conviction this week given the lack of standout scheduled catalysts. Natural gas will track seasonal demand and storage data; copper is the cleanest industrial-metals proxy for the US-China trade story; platinum and palladium will largely mirror the broader precious- and industrial-metals mood; and wheat, more than corn, carries direct exposure to this week’s Eastern Europe geopolitical risk given its link to Black Sea export flows.

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How These Markets Connect

• The US dollar and gold usually move in opposite directions, but that relationship has strained recently — gold’s rally is being driven as much by central bank buying and geopolitical hedging as by dollar weakness. Watch this closely around Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
• Oil and the Canadian dollar tend to move together, since Canada is a major oil exporter. A break higher in crude this week would reinforce the case for a firmer loonie into year-end.
• Risk sentiment and the Japanese yen usually move together, and with the BoJ hawkish and the Fed’s path uncertain, AUD/JPY is this week’s cleanest risk-sentiment barometer — yen strength on any risk-off headline, weakness if commodity currencies stay firm.
• Equity markets and the dollar are linked through consumer data this week, as retail earnings from Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, and Walmart shape perceptions of US consumer health — an indirect but real input into Fed policy expectations.

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Biggest Risks to Watch This Week

• A hawkish FOMC minutes surprise: If the minutes show the July dissent was broader than expected, it could strengthen the dollar, pressure gold, and push Treasury yields higher — reversing much of what markets currently expect.
• A binary RBA outcome: Tuesday’s decision is genuinely too close to call, and AUD is positioned for a sharp move regardless of which way it goes.
• Geopolitical escalation: Any material development in the Middle East, the US-China trade relationship, or Eastern Europe could override the technical and data-driven setups above, particularly for gold, oil, wheat, and the safe-haven currencies (JPY, CHF).
• UK data-cluster risk: Three high-importance UK releases in a single week raises the odds of conflicting signals that whipsaw the pound.
• Crowded positioning: The long-gold and long-silver trades both look popular heading into this week, which raises the risk of a sharp reversal if the FOMC minutes or geopolitical headlines surprise in the other direction.

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Key Takeaways

• The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% in July on a divided 9–3 vote, with most officials still projecting at least one more hike in 2026.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent has publicly called for a September rate cut, creating a rare visible gap with the Fed’s own hawkish signaling.
• Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are this week’s single biggest US catalyst.
• Tuesday’s RBA decision is a genuine coin-flip, with commodity export strength providing a floor for AUD either way.
• The UK faces three high-importance releases this week — employment, CPI, and retail sales — making GBP one of the most independently active currencies.
• The BoJ has signaled another hike as soon as September remains on the table after lifting its rate to 1.00% in June.
• Gold remains well bid, with managed-money positioning net long roughly 130,800 COMEX contracts.
• Oil (WTI near $78–$82) is caught between recovering supply and a persistent Middle East risk premium.
• Three geopolitical flashpoints — the Middle East, US-China trade, and Eastern Europe — remain an underlying risk premium across gold, oil, wheat, and safe-haven currencies.
• Jackson Hole (August 27–29) is the next major event on the calendar, and this week’s positioning is already building ahead of it.

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Frequently Asked Questions

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Related Reading

• Top 10 US Stocks to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
• Top 10 UK Stocks to Watch This Week (Aug 10–14, 2026)
• Top 10 Asian Stocks to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
• Top 10 Forex Pairs and Commodities to Watch This Week (August 10–14, 2026)
• Crypto Market Outlook: Whales Are Buying While Fear Lingers Ahead of CPI

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Conclusion

This week rewards patience over conviction. The Fed’s own July vote revealed real internal disagreement, and that tension — a hawkish-leaning committee facing a Treasury Secretary calling for cuts — is unlikely to resolve cleanly by Friday. Layer on a genuinely binary RBA decision and a UK data calendar dense enough to move the pound on its own, and this is a week defined by two-sided setups rather than one dominant trend.

Gold and silver remain the highest-conviction trades on the board, underpinned by crowded but well-supported positioning, while oil offers the cleanest two-way range trade of the week. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the fulcrum, but keep an eye on the RBA decision, the UK data cluster, and any fresh geopolitical headlines — all are capable of moving markets independently of the scheduled calendar. With Jackson Hole one week away, expect positioning to keep building right through Friday’s flash PMIs.

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