There’s rarely a dull week in UK markets, but the week of July 20–24, 2026 is unusually loaded. On Monday, Andy Burnham formally becomes the UK’s next Prime Minister, taking over from Keir Starmer.
Reports this week suggest his economic advisers have floated some genuinely big ideas — a wealth tax, a further windfall tax on oil and gas companies, and even proposals to bring banks, energy and water utilities into greater public ownership. None of that is confirmed government policy yet, but it’s concrete enough that investors in UK banks, energy firms and utilities are paying close attention.
At the same time, a completely separate story is unfolding thousands of miles away. A ceasefire between the US and Iran broke down on July 8, and renewed strikes have pushed the price of Brent crude oil up to $88 a barrel — a sharp jump from around $76 just a week earlier. That’s good news for oil companies like BP, but bad news for airlines that have to buy jet fuel.
Layer on top of all that a genuinely packed UK economic calendar — a jobs report, an inflation reading, and retail sales data — plus the busiest single day of company earnings this summer, and you’ve got a week where almost everything seems to be happening at once. This guide walks you through what’s scheduled, why it matters, and the 10 UK stocks most likely to move because of it.
Quick Answer / TL;DR
This week, watch for:
- Andy Burnham becoming Prime Minister on Monday, July 20, with reported (unconfirmed) proposals for a wealth tax and nationalisation of banks, energy and water;
- UK inflation data on Wednesday, July 22, which will shape expectations for the Bank of England’s next interest-rate decision; oil prices near $88 a barrel following renewed conflict between the US and Iran;
- and a huge cluster of company earnings on Thursday, July 23, including Centrica, Anglo American, BT, Relx, 3i Group and Howden Joinery.
The stocks most likely to move this week are Centrica, Lloyds Banking Group, BP, Anglo American, Relx, 3i Group, Fresnillo, Compass Group, Howden Joinery and easyJet.
Why This Week Matters
Most weeks in the stock market have one big story. This week has two, and they’re pulling in different directions.
The first is political. Burnham takes office having spent weeks as “Prime Minister-in-waiting,” but details of what he’ll actually do have been thin — until this week. Reports have surfaced specific ideas from people close to him: a wealth tax, another windfall tax on oil and gas profits, and a much bigger idea of taking land, transport, energy, banking and water into greater public ownership.
If you’re new to investing, “nationalisation” simply means a government taking a privately owned company or industry into public (state) ownership.
It’s important to be clear here: these are reported proposals from advisers, not laws that have been passed or even official government policy. But markets often move on the risk that something could happen, not just on confirmation that it has. That’s why UK bank and utility stocks are worth watching closely this week, even though nothing has actually changed yet.
The second story has nothing to do with UK politics at all. A ceasefire between the United States and Iran, agreed back in mid-June, collapsed on July 8 after a dispute over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, strategically vital waterway that a huge share of the world’s oil passes through.
Since then, the US and Iran have exchanged further strikes, and the price of oil has jumped as a result. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed at $88.09 a barrel on July 17, up more than 4.5% in a single day and well above the roughly $76 level seen the previous week.
A higher oil price is generally good news for oil producers like BP and Shell, because it means more cash flow and safer dividends. But it’s bad news for airlines, which have to buy jet fuel, and it complicates the inflation picture just as the Bank of England is deciding what to do with interest rates.
Speaking of which, this week also brings a properly busy UK economic calendar. Tuesday brings the latest jobs and wage-growth data. Wednesday brings the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading for June — the most important scheduled release of the week, since it will heavily influence whether the Bank of England raises interest rates at its next meeting on July 30. And Friday brings retail sales figures plus the first “flash” reading on how UK businesses are feeling this month.
If you want to understand where UK interest rates and the pound might be heading next, this week’s data will tell you more than almost any other week this summer.
Finally, Thursday, July 23 is simply a huge day for company results. Six of this week’s ten stocks to watch — Centrica, Anglo American, BT, Relx, 3i Group and Howden Joinery — all report on the same day. That’s an unusually dense cluster, even by UK earnings-season standards.
Brent Crude Surges to $88 — Trade the Oil Shock
The collapsed US-Iran ceasefire has sent oil prices sharply higher, lifting BP while squeezing airline fuel costs. Trade Brent crude directly with spreads and tools built for active commodity traders.
Trade Oil with Pepperstone →This Week’s UK Economic and Political Calendar
| Date | Event | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 20 | Andy Burnham formally becomes UK Prime Minister | Markets watch for any early signal on tax or public-ownership policy affecting banks, energy and utilities |
| Tue Jul 21 | UK jobs report: unemployment rate and wage growth (March–May) | A stronger-than-expected report could increase the odds of a Bank of England rate hike |
| Wed Jul 22 | UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June | The week’s single most important data point; directly shapes interest-rate expectations |
| Thu Jul 23 | European Central Bank interest rate decision | A major global event that can move currency and stock markets everywhere, including the UK |
| Fri Jul 24 | UK retail sales (June) and flash PMI business surveys | Gives an early read on how UK consumers and businesses are holding up |
Background: The Bank of England’s own decision on interest rates comes the following week, on July 30. This week’s data will be used to judge whether a rate hike is likely then.
This Week’s UK Earnings Calendar
| Company | Ticker | Date | What to Expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compass Group | CPG | Tue Jul 21 | Update on whether growth is tracking above already-raised full-year profit guidance |
| Fresnillo | FRES | Wed Jul 22 | Gold production up sharply, silver production down — a genuine mixed picture |
| Anglo American | AAL | Thu Jul 23 | Copper production update alongside progress on its De Beers sale and Teck Resources merger |
| BT Group | BT.A | Thu Jul 23 | First quarterly update of its new financial year, testing whether fibre-broadband momentum continues |
| Centrica | CNA | Thu Jul 23 | Half-year results expected to show a stronger infrastructure business offsetting a weaker British Gas retail business |
| Relx | REL | Thu Jul 23 | Half-year results testing growth guidance against a recent analyst downgrade on AI-competition worries |
| 3i Group | III | Thu Jul 23 | Update on Action, the discount retailer that makes up most of the trust’s value |
| Howden Joinery | HWDN | Thu Jul 23 | Half-year results expected to confirm the group remains “on track” for the year |
Note: Several other names also report this week, including Kier Group, Mitie, Wickes and J D Wetherspoon, but the eight above carry the clearest, most dated catalysts for the stocks on this week’s watch list.
Top 10 UK Stocks to Watch This Week
Ranked not by company size, but by how likely each stock is to see a significant price move this week, based on confirmed, dated catalysts.
| Rank | Ticker | Trend | Confidence | Volatility | Primary Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNA | Mixed | 68% | High | Half-year results land the same week energy nationalisation becomes a talking point |
| 2 | LLOY | Mixed | 62% | Medium-High | Reported bank public-ownership proposals in Burnham’s first week |
| 3 | BP. | Bullish | 65% | High | Oil price spike to $88/barrel on Iran conflict escalation |
| 4 | AAL | Neutral-to-Bullish | 63% | Medium-High | Q2 production report tests copper guidance and merger progress |
| 5 | REL | Neutral | 59% | Medium-High | Half-year results test guidance against an AI-competition downgrade |
| 6 | III | Bullish | 66% | Medium-High | Continued strong growth at Action, its dominant holding |
| 7 | FRES | Neutral | 57% | High | Gold output up 16%, silver output down 12% — a genuine split |
| 8 | CPG | Bullish | 64% | Medium | Trading update tests already-raised profit guidance |
| 9 | HWDN | Neutral-to-Bullish | 58% | Medium | Half-year results test “on track” spring update |
| 10 | EZJ | Mixed | 60% | Extreme | Takeover battle continues, now complicated by rising fuel costs |
Track This Week’s Top 10 UK Stocks in Real Time
A new PM, an $88 oil shock, and the busiest earnings day of the summer all land this week — follow Centrica, BP, Anglo American, Relx and the rest of the list with free charts, watchlists, and price alerts.
Open Free Charts on TradingView →1. Centrica (CNA)
Mixed · Confidence: 68% · Volatility: High
Centrica, the owner of British Gas, reports half-year results on Thursday, and they’re expected to show a genuinely mixed picture: a stronger infrastructure business offsetting a weaker retail (household energy supply) business, where warmer early-year weather meant fewer customers turned their heating on.
Bull case: a solid infrastructure performance and higher oil and gas prices from the Middle East conflict offset the weak retail showing, and investors treat nationalisation talk as unlikely to happen soon.
Bear case: any concrete early signal from the new government about public ownership of energy companies triggers a sharp reaction, regardless of how the actual results look.
Watch: half-year results, Thursday, July 23.
2. Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)
Mixed · Confidence: 62% · Volatility: Medium-High
Lloyds doesn’t report results this week — that comes on July 30 — but it’s the most widely held, most liquid way for investors to express a view on how markets are pricing the new government’s opening days, especially given reports that Burnham’s advisers have discussed bringing banks under greater public ownership.
Bull case: the political transition passes without concrete hostile announcements, and Lloyds’ strong buyback programme and premium valuation continue.
Bear case: any early rhetoric about bank taxation or public ownership triggers a sell-off in UK bank shares.
Watch: ongoing political headlines this week; H1 results July 30.
3. BP (BP.)
Bullish · Confidence: 65% · Volatility: High
BP doesn’t report results until early August, but this week’s oil-price surge is the story. Brent crude jumped to $88 a barrel on July 17 as the collapsed US-Iran ceasefire raised fears of disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s a meaningful tailwind for BP’s cash flow and dividend, after shares fell from above 600p to around 460p earlier this year.
Bull case: continued Middle East tension keeps oil prices elevated, improving BP’s near-term cash generation.
Bear case: a rapid diplomatic breakthrough sends oil prices right back down, just as a reported windfall tax proposal adds a separate policy risk.
Watch: oil-price headlines all week; Q2 results in early August.
4. Anglo American (AAL)
Neutral-to-Bullish · Confidence: 63% · Volatility: Medium-High
Anglo American reports its Q2 production report on Thursday, giving an update on copper output against full-year guidance of 700,000–760,000 tonnes, plus progress on two big strategic moves: the planned sale of its De Beers diamond business (which recently cut its own production forecasts as diamond demand stays weak) and its merger with Teck Resources, still on track to complete between September 2026 and March 2027.
Bull case: copper output holds up and both the De Beers sale and Teck merger stay on schedule.
Bear case: a copper miss or merger delay, compounded by this week’s broader dip in industrial metals prices.
Watch: Q2 production report, Thursday, July 23.
5. Relx (REL)
Neutral · Confidence: 59% · Volatility: Medium-High
Relx, the FTSE 100 information and analytics giant, reports half-year results on Thursday. The company has guided for continued double-digit profit growth, but Morgan Stanley recently downgraded the stock, warning that AI-powered start-ups could increasingly compete with Relx’s core legal and risk-analysis businesses.
Bull case: results confirm growth is on track and management pushes back credibly on the AI-competition worry.
Bear case: any sign of slowing growth validates the downgrade and pressures a stock that trades at a premium valuation.
Watch: half-year results, Thursday, July 23.
6. 3i Group (III)
Bullish · Confidence: 66% · Volatility: Medium-High
3i is a large investment trust whose value is dominated by a single holding: Action, a fast-growing European discount retailer. Its Q1 update on Thursday should confirm whether Action’s strong momentum — 3.3% like-for-like sales growth so far this year and 105 new stores opened — is continuing.
Bull case: Action’s growth stays strong, supporting 3i’s asset value.
Bear case: any slowdown at Action, given how much of 3i’s value rests on this one business.
Watch: Q1 trading statement, Thursday, July 23.
7. Fresnillo (FRES)
Neutral · Confidence: 57% · Volatility: High
Fresnillo’s half-year production report on Wednesday tells two very different stories at once: gold production jumped 16% year-on-year, strong enough that the company raised its full-year gold guidance, while silver production fell 12% due to mine-specific issues. Gold prices have also been rising as investors seek safe-haven assets amid the Middle East conflict.
Bull case: strong gold prices and output dominate how the market reads the report.
Bear case: investors focus on the structural silver shortfall and broader metals-market volatility.
Watch: half-year production report, Wednesday, July 22.
8. Compass Group (CPG)
Bullish · Confidence: 64% · Volatility: Medium
Compass, the world’s largest catering and food-services company, gives a Q3 trading update on Tuesday. The company already raised its full-year profit growth guidance to above 11% earlier this year, powered by 7.2% organic revenue growth in the first half.
Bull case: growth continues to track at or above the raised guidance.
Bear case: any slowdown in new business wins would be a rare wobble for one of the FTSE 100’s steadiest growers.
Watch: Q3 trading statement, Tuesday, July 21.
9. Howden Joinery (HWDN)
Neutral-to-Bullish · Confidence: 58% · Volatility: Medium
Howden Joinery, the UK’s largest kitchen supplier, reports half-year results on Thursday after a spring update that showed 3.7% revenue growth and confirmed the group was “on track” for the year. Because Howdens sells largely to UK tradespeople doing kitchen renovations, it’s a useful barometer of household spending confidence.
Bull case: UK trading holds up despite rising borrowing costs and political uncertainty.
Bear case: a softer UK reading given this week’s rate and political backdrop.
Watch: half-year results, Thursday, July 23.
10. easyJet (EZJ)
Mixed · Confidence: 60% · Volatility: Extreme
easyJet remains at the centre of a live takeover battle: US private equity firm Apollo has offered £7.15 a share (£5.7 billion total), topping an earlier £6.90-a-share bid from rival Castlelake. Shares still trade below the higher offer, reflecting genuine uncertainty about whether either bid will actually go through. This week’s oil-price spike adds a new complication, since higher fuel costs squeeze the airline’s underlying profitability.
Bull case: a bidding war escalates further, or oil prices ease.
Bear case: sustained high oil prices pressure the business case just as deal-completion risk stays elevated.
Watch: ongoing headlines; bidder deadlines in early August.
GBP/USD in Flux as a New PM Takes Office — Trade the Pound
Sterling is caught between Andy Burnham’s first days in office, a hawkish Bank of England debate, and Thursday’s ECB decision. Trade GBP/USD with tools built for active traders.
Trade GBP/USD with Pepperstone →Sector Outlook at a Glance
| Sector | Outlook | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Banking | Cautious | Reported public-ownership proposals create a new political-risk premium |
| Utilities | High dispersion | Centrica’s earnings collide directly with nationalisation talk |
| Oil & Gas | Bullish near-term | Iran-conflict-driven oil price spike lifts cash flow and dividend safety |
| Mining | Mixed | Gold rising on safe-haven demand; copper and industrial metals slipping |
| Airlines | Bearish near-term | Rising fuel costs directly squeeze margins |
| Retail / Building Products | Steady | Howden Joinery and Compass Group offer a read on household and business spending |
| Information Services | Two-sided | Relx tests a specific AI-competition risk this week |
Biggest Risks This Week
| Risk | Level | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Political / policy risk | Very High | Reported (unconfirmed) proposals for a wealth tax, windfall tax and nationalisation directly affect banks, energy and utilities |
| Middle East conflict | Very High | The collapsed US-Iran ceasefire is a live, unresolved situation directly driving the oil price |
| UK inflation (CPI) | High | Wednesday’s reading is the week’s most important data point for interest-rate expectations |
| Bank of England / rates | Medium-High | Market pricing on a July 30 rate move remains genuinely split |
| GBP volatility | High | The pound faces crosscurrents from politics, UK data, and Thursday’s ECB decision |
Bullish and Bearish Trade Ideas
Top 5 Bullish UK Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| BP | BP. | Oil price spike boosts cash flow and dividend safety |
| Anglo American | AAL | Copper guidance test alongside Teck merger progress |
| 3i Group | III | Continued strong growth at Action |
| Compass Group | CPG | Trading update tests already-raised guidance |
| Howden Joinery | HWDN | Half-year results confirm “on track” momentum |
Top 5 Bearish UK Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Centrica | CNA | Weak retail division meets nationalisation talk |
| Lloyds Banking Group | LLOY | Reported bank public-ownership proposals |
| easyJet | EZJ | Rising fuel costs complicate the takeover story |
| Fresnillo | FRES | Structural silver production shortfalls |
| Relx | REL | AI-competition downgrade under live test |
Build a Watchlist for This Week’s Trade Ideas
From bullish BP and Anglo American to bearish Centrica and easyJet, track every stock on this week’s bullish and bearish list in one place.
Set Up Your Watchlist on TradingView →Key Takeaways
- Andy Burnham becomes UK Prime Minister on Monday, July 20, with reported (unconfirmed) proposals for a wealth tax and nationalisation of banks, energy and water utilities.
- Oil prices have jumped to $88 a barrel after the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 8 — good for BP and Shell, bad for airlines.
- Thursday, July 23 is the busiest single earnings day of the week: Centrica, Anglo American, BT, Relx, 3i Group and Howden Joinery all report.
- UK inflation data on Wednesday is the week’s most important scheduled data point, shaping expectations for the Bank of England’s July 30 rate decision.
- Fresnillo’s report shows a genuine split: gold output up 16%, silver output down 12%.
- easyJet’s takeover battle continues, now complicated by rising fuel costs.
- The 10 stocks most likely to move this week are Centrica, Lloyds, BP, Anglo American, Relx, 3i Group, Fresnillo, Compass Group, Howden Joinery and easyJet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What UK stocks should I watch this week?
The stocks most likely to see significant moves this week are Centrica, Lloyds Banking Group, BP, Anglo American, Relx, 3i Group, Fresnillo, Compass Group, Howden Joinery and easyJet, based on a combination of confirmed earnings dates and major political and macroeconomic catalysts.
When did Andy Burnham become Prime Minister?
Andy Burnham formally became UK Prime Minister on Monday, July 20, 2026, after being declared leader of the Labour Party unopposed on July 17, 2026, succeeding Keir Starmer.
Why is the oil price rising in July 2026?
Oil prices rose sharply after a ceasefire between the United States and Iran broke down on July 8, 2026, following a dispute over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed strikes between the two countries have raised fears of disruption to global oil supply, pushing Brent crude to $88.09 a barrel by July 17.
What is a windfall tax?
A windfall tax is an extra, often one-off or temporary, tax applied to a company’s unusually high profits. It’s frequently discussed for energy companies during periods of high oil and gas prices, since their profits tend to rise sharply alongside prices.
What does nationalisation mean for shareholders?
Nationalisation is when a government takes a privately owned company or industry into public (state) ownership. For shareholders, this typically means the company is bought out, often at a price set or negotiated by the government, which can be below the market price investors were expecting.
Is BP a good dividend stock right now?
BP’s dividend yield has risen to roughly 4.8–5.5% after its share price fell earlier in 2026, and this week’s oil-price spike has improved near-term cash flow and dividend safety. However, dividend yields alone don’t tell the whole story — investors should also consider oil-price volatility and broader policy risks like a potential windfall tax. This isn’t personal financial advice, and readers should do their own research or speak to a financial adviser before investing.
What UK companies are reporting earnings this week?
Major names reporting the week of July 20–24, 2026 include Compass Group (Tuesday), Fresnillo (Wednesday), and a large cluster on Thursday including Anglo American, BT Group, Centrica, Relx, 3i Group and Howden Joinery.
Related Reading
Top 10 US Stocks to Watch This Week (July 20–24, 2026)
Top 10 Asian Stocks to Watch This Week (July 20–24, 2026)
Conclusion
Weeks like this don’t come around often: a new Prime Minister taking office with a reportedly ambitious policy agenda, an unrelated conflict thousands of miles away reshaping oil prices overnight, and a genuinely packed corporate earnings calendar all landing in the same five trading days. None of this guarantees big share-price swings — plenty of weeks that look eventful on paper turn out calmer than expected — but it does mean UK investors have an unusual amount to track.
The throughline worth remembering: political risk has moved from vague to specific this week, and a completely separate oil shock is testing UK markets from a different angle entirely. Keep an eye on Wednesday’s inflation data and Thursday’s earnings cluster in particular — between them, they’ll tell you most of what you need to know about how this week actually played out.
As always, none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell any specific stock; it’s a guide to what’s scheduled and why it matters, so you can do your own research with the full picture in view.
Disclosure: The content on this page was produced with AI writing assistance under the editorial direction of a licensed Electrical Engineering practitioner and certified investor in different markets with over a decade of experience. All articles are reviewed and approved by the author before publication.
