If you check the FTSE 100 this week and see it sitting near an all-time high, you’d be forgiven for thinking it’s a quiet week for UK stocks. It isn’t. On Thursday, July 9, 2026, nominations formally open for a new leader of the Labour Party — and, by extension, a new Prime Minister — following Keir Starmer’s resignation on June 22. That single event, more than any scheduled economic release, is likely to set the tone for the pound, UK government bonds, and a handful of politically sensitive stocks this week.
This article walks through the UK stocks most likely to move between July 6 and July 10, 2026, why they made the list, and what to watch for in the days ahead. We’ll also explain, in plain English, why a political process most investors don’t usually think about can move markets just as much as an earnings report.
Quick Answer / TL;DR
The FTSE 100 is trading near its highest level since early March 2026, powered by record gold and copper prices and a defence-spending boost. But this week’s biggest catalyst is political: Labour leadership nominations open July 9, and how smoothly that process goes could move the pound and UK government bond yields more than any single company result. Stocks to watch include Rolls-Royce (near an all-time high), BAE Systems and Babcock (lagging despite a spending tailwind), Lloyds and NatWest (sensitive to both rates and politics), BP and Shell (falling oil prices, rising dividend yields), Fresnillo and Antofagasta (gold and copper), IAG (heavily shorted airlines), and Associated British Foods (Primark demerger).
Why This Week Matters
The FTSE 100 closed last week near 10,673–10,679 points, its highest level since early March and within reach of the all-time closing high of 10,911 set on February 27, 2026. That’s the index’s sixth consecutive quarterly gain — its best back-to-back run since 2022 — driven largely by mining and utility stocks as gold hovers near $4,800 an ounce and copper trades at fresh records.
Layered on top of that momentum is a genuinely unusual political story. Keir Starmer resigned as Prime Minister on June 22 after losing the confidence of much of his own parliamentary party, following disappointing local election results in May and the continued rise of Reform UK. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is the strong favourite to replace him, especially after his most likely rival, Wes Streeting, chose not to run. Nominations open July 9 and close July 16, with a new leader expected in place before Parliament’s summer recess.
Here’s the important part for investors: the market’s initial reaction to Starmer’s resignation was fairly calm. The pound dipped only modestly before recovering, and the FTSE 100 and UK government bonds (‘gilts’) mostly looked past the immediate uncertainty — a notable contrast to the disorderly market reaction during the 2022 ‘mini-budget’ episode. That calm reaction is itself informative: it suggests markets currently expect policy continuity rather than a dramatic shift, but that assumption will be tested as the nomination process plays out this week.
Meanwhile, the Bank of England held its key interest rate — known as Bank Rate — at 3.75% on June 18, in a split 7–2 vote. UK inflation held steady at 2.8% in May, but ‘services inflation’ (prices for things like restaurants, haircuts, and insurance, which the Bank watches closely as a sign of homegrown price pressure) jumped to 3.7%, its highest reading in months. The Bank’s next rate decision isn’t until July 30 — just outside this week’s window — so for now, this is a positioning week rather than a decision week on interest rates.
This Week’s UK Economic and Political Calendar
Unusually, there is no UK GDP, inflation (CPI), or major PMI release scheduled inside July 6–10 itself — the next GDP update isn’t due until July 16. That means political process and positioning ahead of a busy end-of-July earnings season are doing most of the work this week.
| Date | Event | Why It Matters | Importance | Likely Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Jul 6 | UK Construction PMI (June) | May’s reading of 38.2 was the sharpest contraction since 2020 — any improvement matters for housebuilders | Medium | Housebuilders, building materials |
| Tue–Wed Jul 7–8 | Halifax House Price Index (June) | A read on mortgage market health and consumer confidence | Low–Medium | Housebuilders, mortgage lenders |
| Wed Jul 8 | FOMC Minutes (US Fed, released evening UK time) | UK and US interest rates are now almost level, so US signals move the pound and gilts too | Medium–High | GBP/USD, gilt yields |
| Thu Jul 9 | Labour leadership nominations open | The single biggest event of the week — first real test of how smoothly the transition goes | High | GBP, gilts, banks, utilities |
| Fri Jul 10 | SK Hynix targeted Nasdaq listing (US) | A record global chip listing that could sway broader risk appetite | Medium | Global sentiment spillover |
Looking just past this window: Antofagasta reports Q2 production on July 15, and a heavy run of UK earnings follows — Lloyds (July 24), Barclays (July 29), Rolls-Royce (July 30), and NatWest (July 31) — with the Bank of England’s next rate decision also on July 30.
Top 10 UK Stocks to Watch This Week
| Rank | Company | Ticker | Sector | Trend | Primary Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rolls-Royce Holdings | RR. | Aerospace | Bullish | Nearing all-time high on defence/hydrogen news; H1 results Jul 30 |
| 2 | BAE Systems | BA. | Defence | Volatile | £15bn defence spending boost vs. 3-month pullback |
| 3 | Fresnillo | FRES | Mining (Gold) | Mixed | Gold near $4,800/oz, off January’s record |
| 4 | Antofagasta | ANTO | Mining (Copper) | Bullish | Copper at records ahead of Jul 15 production report |
| 5 | Lloyds Banking Group | LLOY | Banking | Bullish | Multi-month share high; political/rate sensitivity |
| 6 | NatWest Group | NWG | Banking | Bullish | Multi-month share high; same political/rate drivers |
| 7 | BP | BP. | Energy | Bearish/Value | Oil price slide pushed dividend yield to ~5.4% |
| 8 | Shell | SHEL | Energy | Bearish/Value | Oil price slide pushed dividend yield to ~5.5% |
| 9 | IAG | IAG | Airlines | Two-sided | Heavy short interest vs. strong summer travel demand |
| 10 | Associated British Foods | ABF | Consumer | Neutral/Bullish | Confirmed Primark demerger, targeted by end-2027 |
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START TRACKING FOR FREE →1. Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR.)
Rolls-Royce shares are trading near GBX 1,493, testing the psychological 1,500 level and closing in on the all-time high of GBX 1,532. The catalyst: a new U.S. Air Force contract to power its B-52 bomber fleet, plus a hydrogen-engine technology breakthrough that reinforces the company’s position in future zero-carbon flight.
The bull case: continued momentum, defence-spending tailwinds, and a £2.5bn share buyback push the stock through its record high before H1 results on July 30. The bear case: after such a dramatic multi-year re-rating, any broad ‘sell the winners’ rotation — echoing the recent US semiconductor pullback — could hit a crowded momentum name like this one hard.
Watch for: whether shares can clear 1,500–1,532 resistance this week, and any fresh contract or technology news ahead of month-end results.
2. BAE Systems (BA.)
The UK government has confirmed a £15 billion annual increase in defence spending, pushing total defence spend toward £80bn a year by 2029 — including £63bn for nuclear submarines and £8.6bn for the Tempest fighter jet programme. BAE Systems, with its submarine and combat-air franchises, should be a direct beneficiary.
Yet the shares are down roughly 14% over the past three months, a reminder that a supportive policy backdrop doesn’t guarantee a rising share price if a stock has already run hard and investors start banking profits. This creates a genuine value-versus-momentum debate: is the pullback a buying opportunity, or a sign the good news is already priced in?
Watch for: any detail on how the £15bn is allocated, and whether the stock stabilises or extends its slide.
3. Fresnillo (FRES)
Gold prices are consolidating near $4,800 an ounce — still about 25% below January 2026’s record of $5,589, as a stronger US dollar and easing Middle East tensions have reduced demand for gold as a ‘safe haven’ asset. Fresnillo, a pure-play silver and gold miner, fell 2.1% as gold pulled back.
Gold and gold miners have been one of the single biggest drivers of the FTSE 100’s rise to near-record levels this year, so any renewed dollar weakness or fresh geopolitical stress could quickly reignite buying. On the other hand, continued dollar strength would likely keep pressuring pure-play gold miners like Fresnillo.
Watch for: the direction of the US dollar and any safe-haven flows tied to global risk events.
4. Antofagasta (ANTO)
Copper prices have climbed to fresh records, and Antofagasta shares have jumped in anticipation of its Q2 2026 production report, due July 15 — just outside this week’s window. That means this week is effectively a positioning trade ahead of that print.
The bull case is straightforward: strong anticipated production plus a still-rallying copper price, driven by electrification and AI-related power infrastructure demand. The bear case is the classic ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ pattern, where shares that have already run hard into a report can fall even on good news.
Watch for: copper price moves and any pre-announcements ahead of the July 15 production update.
5. Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY)
Lloyds shares recently touched 111.55p, their highest level since February, with H1 2026 results due July 24. This week, though, UK domestic banks are as much a political story as a corporate one: as the most liquid, most-watched proxy for how markets are pricing the Labour leadership transition, Lloyds’ share price this week will partly reflect confidence (or lack of it) in a smooth handover.
A calm, well-telegraphed nomination process this week would likely reassure markets on policy continuity. A messier process — or early hints that a Burnham-led government might revisit bank taxation or regulation as part of a more redistributive platform — could weigh on the stock even if underlying fundamentals stay solid.
Watch for: how Labour MPs' declarations of support unfold from July 9, and any early policy signals from leadership candidates.
6. NatWest Group (NWG)
NatWest shares are near 670p, their highest level since January, moving in close step with Lloyds on the same political and rate-policy drivers. With H1 results guided for late July, this week’s price action is largely a pre-earnings, pre-political-outcome positioning trade.
Because the shares have already run hard, any negative surprise — political or otherwise — could trigger outsized profit-taking relative to a stock that hasn’t moved as far.
Watch for: the same political catalysts as Lloyds, plus any UK consumer-credit commentary that might hint at H1 results.
7. BP (BP.)
BP shares have fallen from above 600p to roughly 460p as Brent crude oil has dropped to the low-$70s from levels briefly above $120 during this year’s Iran-related conflict, following a US–Iran ceasefire framework and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. The falling share price has mechanically pushed BP’s dividend yield up to roughly 5.4%.
That high yield is now a genuine debate: is BP a bargain for income-focused investors, or is the market correctly pricing in further weakness if oil prices stay low? Forecasts vary widely, with some banks projecting Brent averaging $70–80 through 2026 and others seeing it closer to $60.
Watch for: any stabilisation (or further decline) in oil prices, and commentary on capital discipline ahead of BP's Q2 results in early August.
8. Shell (SHEL)
Shell has followed a similar path to BP, falling from around 3,600p to roughly 2,900p as oil prices ease, lifting its forecast dividend yield to around 5.5%. As the UK’s largest listed energy company, Shell’s reaction to falling oil prices this week is a bellwether for the FTSE 100’s entire energy weighting.
Shell’s larger scale and diversified trading and LNG operations offer some insulation compared with smaller, purely upstream energy names, but the stock remains highly sensitive to the direction of crude prices.
Watch for: Brent crude price action and any read-through from BP's performance, since the two often move together.
9. IAG (IAG)
Hedge funds have built meaningful short positions — bets that the share price will fall — against London-listed airlines including Wizz Air, easyJet, and IAG, right as peak summer travel season begins. That sets up a genuine tug-of-war between strong headline demand and scepticism about whether airlines can control costs and protect fares (known as ‘yields’ in the industry).
Falling oil prices are a real tailwind for airline cost bases, and IAG trades on a notably low valuation (roughly 7.7 times trailing earnings). If summer booking and load-factor data comes in strong, heavily shorted airline stocks could see sharp rallies as short-sellers are forced to buy back shares — known as a ‘short squeeze.’ If the short-sellers are right about cost pressures and overcapacity, the stocks could underperform despite the strong headline demand.
Watch for: any early summer trading updates or booking commentary from IAG, easyJet, or Wizz Air.
10. Associated British Foods (ABF)
ABF confirmed on July 1 that it will proceed with a multi-year demerger of Primark (its retail business) from its Food business, targeted for completion before the end of 2027. This is the clearest structural, multi-year corporate story on the UK market right now, and it will keep generating headlines well beyond this week.
In the near term, ABF’s Q3 update showed Primark sales up 3% overall, though like-for-like sales (a measure of sales growth at stores open for at least a year) fell 2.2%, with the company maintaining full-year Primark operating margin guidance of about 10% despite a challenging consumer backdrop. US sales grew a strong 16% in the quarter.
Watch for: further demerger detail, and whether Primark's core UK and European markets show any improvement in like-for-like sales trends.
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- Defence: Bullish on policy, but sharply divided in practice — Rolls-Royce is capturing the momentum while BAE Systems and Babcock have both pulled back double digits over three months despite the same £15bn spending tailwind.
- Mining: The standout FTSE 100 sector in 2026, driven by record gold and copper prices. Antofagasta (copper) looks the stronger near-term story than Fresnillo (gold), which is more exposed to dollar strength.
- Energy: Bearish on price. BP and Shell have both fallen sharply as Brent crude eases from this year’s Iran-conflict highs, though their rising dividend yields (5.4–5.5%) are drawing income-focused interest.
- Banking: Bullish momentum (multi-month share-price highs for Lloyds and NatWest) but genuinely exposed to political headline risk this week given the Labour leadership contest.
- Airlines: Highly two-sided — strong summer demand and falling fuel costs versus elevated hedge-fund short positions against Wizz Air, easyJet, and IAG.
- Consumer staples: Steady, with Sainsbury’s and Greggs both showing market-share and sales momentum, and ABF’s Primark demerger the standout structural story.
Biggest Risks to Watch
- Political risk (High): A messier-than-expected Labour leadership process, or early signals of a sharply different economic policy platform, could quickly reprice the pound and gilts.
- Sterling (High): GBP/USD is trading near a seven-month low around $1.32, with little support from interest-rate differentials since UK and US rates are now almost level.
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- Bond yields (Medium–High): The 10-year gilt yield sits near 4.79%, tracking US Treasury yields higher; further political risk could push UK yields up independent of global moves.
- Bank of England policy (Medium): A finely balanced 7–2 vote and rising services inflation (3.7%) mean the rate outlook could shift even without a scheduled decision this week.
- Oil prices (Medium–High): Forecasts for Brent crude range from roughly $60 to $80 through the rest of 2026 — a wide range that matters directly for BP, Shell, and airline cost bases.
Best Bullish and Bearish Trade Ideas This Week
Top 5 Bullish UK Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Confidence | Catalyst | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolls-Royce | RR. | 74% | Nearing all-time high on defence/hydrogen news | Failure at resistance; pre-earnings profit-taking |
| Antofagasta | ANTO | 72% | Copper at records ahead of Jul 15 update | ‘Buy the rumour, sell the news’ risk |
| BAE Systems | BA. | 68% | Confirmed £15bn spending vs. pullback = value | Continued rotation away from defence names |
| Lloyds Banking Group | LLOY | 65% | Multi-month high, BoE holding pattern | Political/regulatory headline risk |
| NatWest Group | NWG | 63% | Same bank-sector tailwinds as Lloyds | Same political/regulatory overhang |
Top 5 Bearish UK Stocks
| Company | Ticker | Confidence | Catalyst | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP | BP. | 58% | Oil price collapse from conflict highs | Rebound on renewed geopolitical risk |
| Shell | SHEL | 58% | Same oil-price weakness | Defensive rotation into high-yield energy |
| Wizz Air | WIZZ | 60% | Largest net short position among UK airlines | Strong summer bookings could squeeze shorts |
| Fresnillo | FRES | 55% | Gold consolidating off January’s record | Renewed safe-haven bid reverses this quickly |
| Babcock International | BAB. | 55% | Down ~20% in 3 months despite spending tailwind | Policy-driven reversal is plausible |
Key Takeaways
- Labour leadership nominations open Thursday, July 9, following Keir Starmer’s resignation — this is the week’s single biggest catalyst.
- The FTSE 100 is near its all-time high, up for a sixth straight quarter, driven mainly by mining and utility stocks.
- The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% on a split 7–2 vote; the next decision isn’t until July 30.
- UK services inflation jumped to 3.7% in May, a concern even without a fresh data release this week.
- The pound is near a seven-month low, with political risk now seen as its main domestic driver.
- Rolls-Royce is closing in on an all-time high; BAE Systems and Babcock have fallen despite the same defence-spending tailwind.
- BP and Shell have both slid as oil prices fall, pushing their dividend yields above 5%.
- Gold is consolidating near $4,800/oz while copper hits fresh records, supporting FTSE 100 mining stocks.
- Hedge funds have built large short positions against UK airlines heading into peak summer travel season.
- No UK GDP, CPI, or major PMI print is scheduled this week — political process and pre-earnings positioning are the main drivers instead.
FAQ
Why is the FTSE 100 near an all-time high in July 2026?
The FTSE 100 has been lifted mainly by mining stocks, as gold and copper prices hit multi-year or record highs, along with strength in utilities and defence-related names. It closed last week near 10,673–10,679, close to February’s record closing high of 10,911.
What does the Labour leadership contest mean for the stock market?
It introduces political uncertainty at a time when the FTSE 100 is otherwise near record highs. Markets have reacted calmly so far, but the pound and UK government bonds are considered more sensitive to political headlines than usual this week, since nominations formally open on July 9.
Is Rolls-Royce a good stock to buy right now?
Rolls-Royce shares are near an all-time high, supported by defence and hydrogen-technology news, with H1 results due July 30. That combination of strong momentum and an approaching binary event (the earnings report) means both the upside and downside risk are elevated — this is not financial advice, and readers should do their own research or consult a financial adviser.
Why did BP and Shell shares fall in 2026?
Both stocks fell as Brent crude oil prices dropped from highs above $120 during this year’s Iran-related conflict down to the low-$70s, following a ceasefire framework and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz shipping. Lower oil prices typically reduce profitability for oil majors.
What is the Bank of England’s current interest rate?
The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% at its June 18, 2026 meeting, in a 7–2 vote. Its next decision is scheduled for July 30, 2026.
Why are hedge funds shorting UK airline stocks?
Short-sellers are betting that strong headline summer travel demand won’t be enough to offset rising costs and competitive pressure on fares (yields) across the European airline industry. Wizz Air, easyJet, and IAG have all seen elevated short interest heading into the summer season.
What is a dividend yield, and why do BP’s and Shell’s look so high right now?
A dividend yield is the annual dividend payment divided by the current share price. When a share price falls but the dividend stays the same, the yield rises — which can either signal a bargain or a market pricing in future dividend risk. BP’s and Shell’s yields are both now above 5%, following steep share-price declines.
What happens if the Labour leadership contest is contested rather than a ‘coronation’?
If more than one candidate secures the required nominations from at least 20% of Labour MPs (81 MPs), a full leadership contest would follow, extending the process closer to summer recess on July 16. A longer, less certain process would likely increase — rather than resolve — the political risk premium currently priced into the pound and gilts.
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Conclusion
The week of July 6–10, 2026 is a reminder that markets don’t only move on earnings and economic data — political process matters too. With Labour leadership nominations opening July 9, and no major UK GDP, inflation, or PMI release scheduled inside the window, this week is best understood as a positioning week: for a heavy run of bank and Rolls-Royce earnings later in July, for the Bank of England’s July 30 rate decision, and for whatever the coming leadership transition means for UK economic policy. The stocks above — spanning defence, mining, banking, energy, airlines, and consumer staples — each offer a genuine, evidence-based two-sided story rather than a one-way consensus call, which is exactly the kind of setup worth watching closely rather than trading on headlines alone.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research or speak with a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
Disclosure: The content on this page was produced with AI writing assistance under the editorial direction of a licensed Electrical Engineering practitioner and certified investor in different markets with over a decade of experience. All articles are reviewed and approved by the author before publication.
