TEL Stock Analysis 2026: Is TEL Stock a Buy in 2026? What Every Filipino Investor Should Know (UPDATED)

Is TEL Worth Buying Right Now?

If you have been watching TEL stock analysis 2026 headlines, you already know the story feels complicated. PLDT, Inc. — the company behind the Smart and TNT mobile brands and the largest fixed-line broadband network in the Philippines — just posted a quarter where revenues barely moved. Core income dipped slightly. And yet the stock offers a dividend yield close to 8%.

So which is it — a value trap hiding in plain sight, or a quiet income stock that the market has overlooked?

We broke down the numbers so you do not have to read a dense earnings report. Here are three honest truths about TEL that every Filipino investor should understand before making a decision.

New to stock investing? Before diving into individual companies, make sure you have the basics covered. Our beginner’s guide to stock investing is a great place to start.

What Does PLDT (TEL) Actually Do?

PLDT, Inc. is one of the two dominant telecommunications companies in the Philippines. Most people know it through Smart Communications and TNT, which together serve over 60 million mobile subscribers. On the fixed-line side, TEL is the leader in home fiber broadband, with over 4.3 million broadband subscribers as of early 2026.

The business is split into two main segments: wireless (mobile data, prepaid, and postpaid services) and fixed line (home broadband, enterprise data, and landline). TEL also holds a significant stake in Maya, the digital banking and fintech platform, which is becoming an increasingly important part of its story.

In short, TEL is not just a phone company. It is a broadband infrastructure business with a growing fintech angle — and that combination shapes how we value it.

We have also written about the broader digital economy theme in the PSE. If you are curious about other tech-adjacent stocks, check out our piece on the best tech stocks in the Philippines.

TEL Financial Snapshot

Metric	Value
Current Price	₱1,180
Market Cap	₱261.4 Billion
FY2026E Core EPS	₱162.7
Forward P/E	7.6x
Dividend Yield (2026E)	7.9%
ROE (FY2026E)	25.5%
Total Broadband Subscribers	4.3 Million
Total Mobile Subscribers	60.9 Million
EBITDA Margin (1Q26)	57.8%

3 Honest Truths from the Latest TEL Earnings

Truth #1: Revenue Growth Has Stalled — But for Specific Reasons

TEL’s first quarter 2026 results showed that total service revenues came in nearly flat year on year at just under ₱49 billion. Mobile revenues barely moved (+0.7%), and home broadband revenues actually slipped slightly (-0.6%). On paper, that looks concerning.

But the reasons matter. On the mobile side, inflationary pressure — driven largely by higher fuel costs tied to global tensions — is causing subscribers to stretch their data purchases further. Instead of topping up frequently, users are exhausting their current promos before buying again. The result is lower revenue per user (ARPU), even as subscriber counts grew to 60.9 million.

On broadband, the flat performance came from two temporary factors: a system migration that slowed down new installations, and special assistance TEL extended to typhoon-affected subscribers, which suppressed ARPU by 9.8% for the quarter. Importantly, the subscriber base still grew by 8.7% year on year to 4.3 million.

The takeaway: this is not structural demand collapse. It looks more like a short-term pressure period. Whether that recovers quickly depends on inflation trends and how fast TEL works through its system migration.

Truth #2: The Dividend Is Real and Well-Supported

This is the part that tends to get lost in the noise. TEL carries a forward dividend yield of approximately 7.9% at current prices. For every ₱1,180 invested, you are collecting close to ₱93 in annual dividends — without the stock doing anything.

How sustainable is that? The company targets a payout ratio of 60% of the prior year’s net income. With Telco Core Income projected to stay steady at around ₱35 billion through 2028, the dividend is covered by earnings — not funded by debt or asset sales.

What also stands out is the efficiency story. Even as revenues stayed flat, cash operating costs dropped 3.1% year on year. That improvement pushed EBITDA margins higher to 57.8% in the quarter — a level that very few businesses in any sector can match. That margin strength is what protects the dividend.

For income-focused investors, a near-8% dividend yield backed by a stable EBITDA margin of 57–58% is not a signal to panic. It is actually one of the more compelling income arguments on the PSE right now.

Truth #3: Maya Is a Growing Wild Card

Most people think of TEL as a telco. But there is a fintech angle here that deserves attention. TEL holds a meaningful stake in Maya, the digital bank and payments platform, and its contribution to TEL’s bottom line more than doubled year on year in the most recent quarter.

Maya’s loan book expanded by 57% year on year to ₱33 billion, and deposits surged 73% to ₱76 billion. With a net interest margin of 17.1%, Maya is generating high returns on its lending activity. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 4.9% requires monitoring, but at a loan-to-deposit ratio of just 44%, there is significant room for further lending growth without straining its balance sheet.

This is not yet a dominant contributor to TEL’s overall income, but the trajectory is clear. As Maya scales, its contribution to TEL’s earnings will grow. That is a catalyst most investors are not yet pricing in — and it is a reason to watch TEL beyond just its telco fundamentals.

TEL Stock Valuation: What Is It Actually Worth?

TEL is classified under the Services / Consumer / Telco sector on the PSE. We apply a Growth-Adjusted P/E model, using the appropriate PSE base multiple for this sector.

Valuation Inputs

Valuation Parameter	Applied Value
Sector	Services / Telco (PSE)
FY2026E Core EPS	₱162.7
PSE Base P/E (Telco)	10x–16x
Starting P/E (mid-range)	13x
ROE Adjustment (ROE >15% = +2x)	+2x (ROE: 25.5%)
Growth Adjustment (EPS growth ~0.4% = 0x)	0x
Weak Macro / Stagnant Revenue (-1x)	−1x
Adjusted P/E	14x
Fair Value (EPS × P/E)	₱2,278
Margin of Safety (20%)	−1x (–20%)
Buy Below Price	₱1,822
Current Price vs. Buy Below	₱1,180 — BELOW Buy Below Price ✔

At the current price of ₱1,180, TEL trades at a 35% discount to our estimated fair value of ₱2,278 — and well below our Buy Below Price of ₱1,822. That gap is meaningful. Even with modest assumptions on earnings growth, TEL appears materially undervalued relative to its ROE, dividend yield, and cash flow profile.

The stock also trades below its own five-year historical EV/EBITDA average, reinforcing the case that current prices do not reflect TEL’s underlying earnings power.

Bull Case: Why TEL Could Outperform

• TEL commands a 46.7% broadband revenue market share — a durable competitive advantage that is difficult for competitors to displace.
• The near-8% dividend yield is covered by earnings and supported by a 57%+ EBITDA margin, making it one of the more reliable income positions on the PSE.
• Maya’s digital banking and lending operations are scaling rapidly. A doubling of contributions year on year signals a fintech business that is gaining real traction.
• The stock trades below its five-year historical valuation averages, suggesting room for re-rating if macro conditions normalize.
• The Konektadong Pinoy Bill, which lapsed into law in August 2025, provides a regulatory tailwind that could accelerate broadband penetration in underserved areas — expanding TEL’s addressable market.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

• Revenue growth is stuck near zero. If inflation persists and consumer wallets remain under pressure, the mobile ARPU decline could extend beyond a single quarter.
• TEL carries a heavy debt load, with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 2.0x and significant interest expense. Rising interest rates would increase its cost of borrowing and put pressure on net income.
• Broadband subscriber additions slowed sharply in the most recent quarter (43,516 net adds vs. 125,543 in the previous quarter). If the OSS migration issues linger, the growth story in fixed-line weakens.
• Maya’s NPL ratio is rising (+1.1 percentage points year on year to 4.9%). Rapid loan growth with rising defaults is a combination that deserves close monitoring.
• The wireless segment faces a mature, competitive market where price-driven behavior limits ARPU expansion.

Key Risks to Watch

Before making any investment decision, here are the risk factors we think deserve the most attention:

• Sustained inflation: If fuel prices and the cost of living remain elevated, mobile top-up behavior will continue to suppress ARPU and revenue growth.
• Interest rate risk: TEL’s debt is large. Any upward movement in Philippine interest rates raises refinancing costs and reduces free cash flow available for dividends.
• Execution risk on broadband: The OSS migration is expected to be temporary, but delays in completing it could push back subscriber addition targets.
• Maya credit quality: A rising NPL ratio in Maya’s loan book is not alarming yet, but it must be tracked carefully as the loan portfolio scales further.
• Competition from Globe: The duopoly structure limits pricing flexibility. Any aggressive moves by Globe in broadband or enterprise could pressure TEL’s market share.

Should You Consider TEL Stock in 2026?

This TEL stock analysis 2026 paints a picture of a company in a holding pattern — not broken, not growing fast, but generating serious cash and returning it to shareholders at a near-8% yield.

The bull case rests on three pillars: a dominant broadband position, a resilient dividend backed by strong EBITDA margins, and a growing fintech business in Maya that the market may not be pricing in yet. The bear case centers on stagnant revenue growth, a heavy debt load, and execution risks that are real but largely temporary in nature.

At ₱1,180, TEL sits well below our Buy Below Price of ₱1,822 — creating a margin of safety that income investors, in particular, may find worth exploring. The dividend yield alone provides meaningful compensation while you wait for the catalysts to materialize.

That said, this is your money and your decision. We lay out the numbers. You decide if TEL fits your goals, your timeline, and your risk appetite.

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Frequently Asked Questions: TEL Stock

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Disclaimer

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All analysis presented here reflects our own research and interpretation of publicly available data. Investing in stocks involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Always do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.