If you check the calendar for a Federal Reserve meeting this week, you won’t find one — and neither will you find a meeting from the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, or Bank of Canada. Every major central bank sits out the week of July 13–17, 2026. That might sound like a quiet stretch for currency and commodity traders. It isn’t.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, sworn in on May 22, delivers his first-ever testimony before Congress this week — to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, July 14, and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, July 15. June’s inflation report lands just 90 minutes before that first hearing begins. On Thursday, China releases its second-quarter GDP figures alongside a bundle of other closely watched economic data, a release with direct consequences for the Australian and New Zealand dollars, the Chinese yuan, and copper prices. Layered on top: a collapsed ceasefire between the US and Iran that’s pushed oil prices higher again, and a fresh US tariff threat against Canada with a hard August 1 deadline.

This guide walks through the 10 forex pairs and 10 commodities most likely to move as a result, explains the key concepts in plain English along the way, and lays out the balanced bull and bear case for each so you can form your own view.

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Quick Answer / TL;DR

No central bank meets this week, but two scheduled events are doing the work of one: new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut congressional testimony (paired directly with June’s CPI report) and China’s Q2 GDP release on Thursday. Gold is sitting on unusually crowded bullish positioning, making it more exposed than usual to a sharp move in either direction. Oil has climbed back above $75 (Brent) after the US–Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 8, and a fresh US tariff threat against Canada is already moving USD/CAD ahead of its August 1 deadline. The pairs and commodities most worth watching this week are USD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, gold, silver, copper, and Brent crude.

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Why This Week Matters

Most weeks, the biggest scheduled catalyst for currencies and commodities is a central bank rate decision — will policymakers raise, cut, or hold interest rates? This week breaks that pattern entirely: the Bank of Canada doesn’t meet until July 21, the European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia until July 23, the Bank of England until July 30, the Bank of Japan until July 30–31, and the Fed itself not until July 28–29.

In place of a rate decision, markets get something arguably just as important: a brand-new Fed chair’s first real-time test in front of lawmakers. Kevin Warsh took over as the Fed’s 17th chair on May 22, 2026, and at his very first meeting as chair on June 17, the Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% while quietly shifting its “dot plot” — a chart showing where each policymaker expects rates to be at year-end — toward implying one more hike rather than a cut. Warsh’s testimony this week is the first chance markets get to hear him explain that shift directly to Congress, live, under questioning. And because June’s CPI report lands just 90 minutes before his House testimony begins, he’ll be doing it with the freshest possible inflation data in hand.

Thursday adds a second major pillar: China’s Q2 GDP release, bundled with June industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment figures. As the largest trading partner for Australia and New Zealand, and the single biggest source of demand behind this year’s industrial-metals rally, China’s growth data ripples directly into AUD, NZD, the yuan, and copper prices.

None of this happens in a vacuum. Gold is sitting on unusually crowded positioning — more on that below — while a collapsed Iran ceasefire and a fresh US tariff threat against Canada add real, live risk on top of the data calendar. The lesson for readers: the absence of a rate decision doesn’t mean the absence of risk.

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This Week’s Global Economic Calendar

Here’s what’s scheduled for the week of July 13–17, 2026. All times are in UTC.

Date	Time (UTC)	Region	Event	Previous	Forecast	Importance	Market Impact
Mon Jul 13	18:00	United States	Federal Budget (June)	—	—	Low	Limited direct impact; positioning day
Mon Jul 13	—	Global	USDA Crop Progress Report	Corn 67% G/E; soybeans 64% G/E; wheat 26% G/E	Update expected	Medium	Wheat, corn, soybeans
Tue Jul 14	12:30	United States	CPI (June) — Headline & Core	Headline ~4.2% YoY; Core ~2.9% YoY	Headline ~3.9% YoY; Core ~2.9% YoY	High	USD, gold, yields — 90 min before Warsh’s House testimony
Tue Jul 14	14:00	United States	Fed Chair Warsh — House Financial Services Testimony	—	—	High	USD, gold, broad risk sentiment
Wed Jul 15	12:30	United States	PPI (June); Empire State & Philly Fed Manufacturing (July)	—	—	Medium-High	USD; pipeline-inflation and manufacturing read
Wed Jul 15	~14:00	United States	Fed Chair Warsh — Senate Banking Testimony	—	—	High	USD, gold, Treasury yields
Thu Jul 16	~02:00	China	Q2 GDP; June Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed-Asset Investment	Q1 2026 growth described as a “good start”	Moderate growth expected	High	CNY, AUD, NZD, copper
Thu Jul 16	12:30	United States	Initial Jobless Claims; Import/Export Prices (June)	~235–245K	~235–245K	Medium	USD; labor-market and trade-price read
Fri Jul 17	12:30	United States	Advance Retail Sales (June)	—	—	Medium-High	USD; consumer-spending pulse
Fri Jul 17	14:00	United States	U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Preliminary (July)	—	—	Medium	USD; forward-looking sentiment

The CPI-Then-Testimony Sequence, Explained Simply

Twice a year, the Fed chair is required to testify before Congress on monetary policy — a tradition often called “Humphrey-Hawkins testimony” after the law that created it. For a brand-new chair, the first of these appearances is closely watched, because it’s the first real-time look at how they communicate under pressure. Having June’s CPI report land just 90 minutes before Warsh’s House hearing means lawmakers can question him directly about the newest inflation numbers, making this testimony unusually likely to move markets.

China’s Q2 GDP Release — Why One Data Dump Moves So Many Currencies

China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and investment data together each quarter. Because China buys enormous quantities of raw materials and manufactured goods from countries like Australia and New Zealand, a strong or weak Chinese growth number tends to ripple quickly into those countries’ currencies — and into the price of industrial metals like copper, which China consumes more of than any other country.

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Top 10 Forex Pairs to Watch This Week

Here’s a quick-scan summary, followed by a closer look at each pair.

Rank	Pair	Trend	Confidence	Volatility
1	USD/JPY	Bullish (USD)	66%	High
2	EUR/USD	Neutral	58%	Medium-High
3	GBP/USD	Neutral-to-bearish	55%	Medium-High
4	AUD/USD	Neutral-to-bullish	64%	High
5	NZD/USD	Bullish (post-hike)	60%	Medium-High
6	USD/CAD	Bullish (USD)	65%	High
7	USD/CHF	Neutral	52%	Medium-High
8	USD/CNH	Neutral, policy-controlled	60%	Medium-High
9	AUD/JPY	Bullish (risk-on proxy)	58%	Medium-High
10	USD/MXN	Neutral, high-beta	54%	Medium-High

1. USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains anchored by the widest interest-rate gap in the G10 — the Fed’s 3.50%–3.75% range against the Bank of Japan’s 1.00% — and that gap is squarely in focus this week as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces Congress for the first time. A “rate differential” simply means the gap between two countries’ interest rates; wider gaps tend to attract money into the higher-yielding currency, which is why USD/JPY has kept climbing even after the BoJ hiked to a 31-year high in June. If Warsh’s testimony (House on Tuesday, Senate on Wednesday) sounds hawkish, or June CPI shows sticky core inflation, expect the pair to push higher. A dovish surprise, or fresh verbal intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, could trigger a sharp pullback. There’s no BoJ meeting this week (the next one isn’t until July 30–31), so the US side of the story dominates.

2. EUR/USD

With no European Central Bank meeting or major Eurozone data inside this window, EUR/USD is almost entirely a dollar story this week. That makes it one of the cleanest ways to read how markets interpret Tuesday’s CPI print and Warsh’s back-to-back testimony. A cooler-than-expected CPI reading, or a measured tone from the new Fed chair, would likely push the pair higher as the dollar softens broadly. A sticky core-inflation print paired with hawkish-sounding testimony would do the opposite. Because the euro side of the equation is quiet this week, EUR/USD effectively becomes a straightforward referendum on the US side of the story — useful for beginners because it strips away one layer of complexity.

3. GBP/USD

The UK side of this pair is quiet this week — the Bank of England is on hold at 3.75% with no meeting until July 30, and the next UK inflation report isn’t due until July 22. That leaves GBP/USD trading almost entirely off the same US catalysts driving EUR/USD: Tuesday’s CPI print and Warsh’s testimony. Without a domestic UK story to lean on, sterling is more exposed than usual to broad dollar swings this week. A hawkish-leaning testimony would likely pressure the pair toward recent lows, while a dovish surprise could lift it. Readers should treat GBP/USD this week as a high-beta way to express a view on the dollar rather than a UK-specific trade.

4. AUD/USD

Thursday’s bundled China data release — Q2 GDP alongside June industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment — is this week’s single biggest catalyst for the Australian dollar. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, and its appetite for Australian iron ore, coal, and other exports directly shapes AUD. Record copper prices, driven by US tariff policy and heavy stockpiling, have also been a tailwind for commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie. A firm China growth print would likely extend AUD’s recent strength; a weak one would revive demand concerns quickly. The Reserve Bank of Australia itself isn’t meeting until July 23, so this week’s move is almost entirely a China story.

5. NZD/USD

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a hike to 2.50% on July 8 — just before this research window opened — surprising some economists who had expected a hold. With no further review scheduled until September 2, NZD/USD this week trades mostly on follow-through from that decision, plus its usual sensitivity to China data (New Zealand shares meaningful trade exposure with China, similar to Australia). A continued repricing of the RBNZ’s newly hawkish stance, combined with a solid China GDP print, would support further NZD gains. A hawkish surprise from Warsh’s testimony, or a weak China number, could pull the kiwi back down given its typically high sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite.

6. USD/CAD

This is the week’s clearest trade-policy story: President Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canadian goods on July 10, with an August 1 deadline if the two sides don’t reach an agreement. That’s a live, dated risk sitting on top of a Bank of Canada that’s already on hold at 2.25% (its next meeting, July 21, falls just after this window). Elevated oil prices — Brent near $75.50, WTI near $71.20 — would normally support the Canadian dollar given Canada’s energy exports, but that tailwind is being overshadowed by tariff-headline risk this week. Watch for any signs of negotiation progress or escalation; both could move USD/CAD sharply regardless of what happens in the US data calendar.

7. USD/CHF

The Swiss franc’s role as a classic “safe-haven” currency — one investors buy when they’re nervous about global risk — is squarely in focus this week after President Trump declared the US–Iran ceasefire “over” on July 8, reviving concerns about shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. There’s no Swiss National Bank meeting scheduled, so USD/CHF this week is really a read on two things: how the CPI/Warsh sequence shapes the dollar, and how seriously markets take the renewed Middle East risk. A calm week on the geopolitical front, paired with hawkish-sounding testimony, would likely lift USD/CHF; any fresh escalation would likely do the opposite as investors seek the franc’s safety.

8. USD/CNH

USD/CNH (the offshore yuan) is directly exposed to Thursday’s China GDP and activity data — the week’s single most important release for understanding how the People’s Bank of China is likely to manage its currency in the weeks ahead. That data also lands against the backdrop of finalized US Section 232 copper tariffs and a fresh US tariff threat against Canada, both signals of an active US trade-policy stance that indirectly affects China-linked positioning. A softer China print could see the PBOC tolerate gradual yuan weakness to support exporters; a firmer print, paired with a measured Warsh testimony, could support yuan stability. This pair is a useful way for readers to see China’s economy translated directly into a tradeable currency move.

9. AUD/JPY

AUD/JPY is a classic “risk sentiment” barometer — when investors feel confident, they tend to borrow cheaply in low-yielding currencies like the yen and invest in higher-yielding ones like the Australian dollar (a strategy known as the carry trade). With volatility measures like the VIX sitting near multi-month lows (around 16–17), that trade has stayed attractive. Thursday’s China GDP data adds a second layer, since it directly affects AUD’s fundamental strength. A calm week for both risk sentiment and China data would support this pair; any shock — whether from a hawkish Warsh surprise or an escalation in the Iran situation — could unwind carry positioning quickly, since these trades tend to reverse fast when confidence drops.

10. USD/MXN

The Mexican peso rounds out this week’s list as a liquid, high-beta way to read how markets are pricing broader US trade-policy risk. With Trump’s Canada tariff threat signaling a willingness to use tariffs aggressively, USD/MXN offers readers a distinct, non-G10 lens on the same underlying theme, given Mexico’s own deep trade relationship with the US. Broad dollar direction from the CPI/Warsh sequence will also matter. A hawkish testimony combined with escalating tariff rhetoric elsewhere would likely pressure the peso; calmer trade headlines and a measured Fed tone would support continued EM-currency resilience, consistent with the calm broader risk backdrop so far this year.

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Top 10 Commodities to Watch This Week

As with the forex pairs above, here’s a quick-scan summary followed by a closer look at each commodity.

Rank	Commodity	Trend	Confidence	Volatility
1	Gold	Neutral-to-bullish, but crowded	62%	High
2	Silver	Bullish	62%	High
3	Copper	Bullish, with bubble risk flagged	58%	Very High
4	Brent Crude	Bullish (near-term)	60%	High
5	WTI Crude	Bullish (near-term)	58%	High
6	Natural Gas (Henry Hub)	Neutral	50%	Medium
7	Platinum	Neutral	48%	Medium
8	Palladium	Neutral-to-bullish	50%	Medium-High
9	Wheat	Neutral	48%	Medium
10	Corn	Neutral	46%	Medium

1. Gold

Gold is trading near $4,100–$4,170 per ounce — still roughly a quarter below January’s record high of $5,597 — but the more important story this week is positioning. Data from the CFTC (the US regulator that tracks who’s betting what in futures markets) shows speculative net-long bets on gold have climbed to about 194,000 contracts, with long positions vastly outnumbering short ones. That’s a “crowded trade”: when almost everyone is already betting the same way, there are fewer new buyers left to push prices higher, but plenty of existing buyers who could sell if sentiment shifts. That makes gold unusually sensitive to this week’s CPI print and Warsh testimony — a hawkish surprise could trigger an outsized pullback, while a dovish one could extend the move toward the $6,000 year-end targets some banks have floated.

2. Silver

Silver has continued 2026’s remarkable run alongside gold and copper, supported by both industrial demand (it’s used in electronics and solar panels) and investment demand that tends to track gold’s moves. Because silver is a smaller, less liquid market than gold, it often moves in exaggerated fashion — rising faster in rallies and falling faster in pullbacks. That makes it worth watching alongside gold this week: if Tuesday’s CPI print or Warsh’s testimony triggers a gold reversal given the metal’s crowded positioning, silver could see an amplified move. Readers should treat silver as a higher-volatility cousin of gold rather than an entirely separate story this week.

3. Copper

Copper remains 2026’s most policy-driven commodity story. The Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs — a 50% duty structure finalized June 30 — have pushed traders to rush material into the US ahead of the deadline, driving COMEX (the US metals exchange) inventories to a record 650,000 tons. Several analysts now describe this stockpiling rally as unsustainable, meaning prices could be inflated beyond what actual demand justifies. At the same time, there’s a genuine long-term demand story here too: copper is essential for data centers, AI infrastructure, and electrification, with global demand projected to climb from roughly 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040. Thursday’s China GDP data will test which story dominates this week — strong Chinese demand would reinforce the rally, while a weak print could accelerate an unwind of the stockpiling trade.

4. Brent Crude

Oil is back in focus after President Trump declared the US–Iran ceasefire “over” on July 8, reviving concerns about the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil physically passes. Brent crude has climbed to around $75.50 per barrel on that renewed risk. Adding to the uncertainty, Iraq has threatened to leave OPEC over a production-quota dispute, while the United Arab Emirates has pushed its own output to a record high. This is a genuinely two-sided, fast-moving story: any further escalation around Hormuz could push prices higher quickly, while a fresh de-escalation or ceasefire framework could deflate the current risk premium just as fast, echoing the sharp price swings seen the last time this ceasefire briefly held.

5. WTI Crude

WTI, the main US oil benchmark, is trading near $71.20 per barrel and sharing Brent’s Iran-ceasefire-collapse dynamics, with an added domestic wrinkle: higher prices tend to encourage more US shale drilling, which can eventually cap gains. For now, geopolitical risk is doing most of the work. Readers should watch the weekly EIA petroleum status report for a read on US supply and demand, alongside any Hormuz-related headlines. As with Brent, the range of outcomes here is wide — further Middle East escalation or renewed OPEC+ supply discipline could extend the rally, while a credible de-escalation could send prices sharply lower given how much of the current price reflects risk premium rather than physical scarcity.

6. Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Natural gas is the quietest major energy commodity this week, trading in a fairly contained range as production growth largely offsets summer cooling-driven demand. Unlike oil, gas prices aren’t being driven by the Iran situation, since the US is largely self-sufficient in natural gas. The main swing factor to watch is the weekly EIA storage report on Thursday, along with any extended heat forecasts that could push cooling demand higher. This is a good reminder for beginners that not every commodity moves on the same headlines — gas is trading on its own weather-and-supply fundamentals even while oil reacts sharply to geopolitics.

7. Platinum

Platinum, trading near $1,629 per ounce, has been largely flat, tracking the broader precious-metals complex rather than showing a trend of its own this week. It shares some of gold and silver’s investment-demand dynamics but also has a distinct industrial use in automotive catalytic converters, a demand source facing long-term uncertainty as electric vehicles gain market share. If this week’s CPI/Warsh sequence pushes the dollar and real yields lower, platinum would likely get a lift alongside gold and silver; a hawkish surprise would likely have the opposite effect.

8. Palladium

Palladium, trading near $1,276–$1,300 per ounce, remains one of the more genuinely uncertain commodity stories on this list — forecasts for the metal vary unusually widely. Supply is concentrated in just two countries, Russia and South Africa, so any disruption there can tighten the market quickly and push prices higher. Working against that is steady, structural demand erosion from the shift toward electric vehicles, since palladium’s main industrial use is in catalytic converters for gasoline engines. With no specific scheduled catalyst this week, palladium is more of a background watch than an active story, useful mainly as an example of a commodity where the bull and bear cases are both genuinely strong.

9. Wheat

Wheat trades near $6.00–$6.03 per bushel (September contract) after winter-wheat crop conditions were rated just 26% good-to-excellent as of July 5 — sharply below 48% a year earlier. Normally, the USDA’s monthly WASDE report (a government supply-and-demand snapshot for major crops) would be this week’s key catalyst, but July’s edition already published on July 10, and the next one isn’t due until mid-August. That leaves wheat trading on weekly crop-progress updates and weather during a critical growing stretch, with forecasts showing above-normal temperatures continuing through mid-July even as a recent heat wave moderates. This is a quieter week for wheat specifically because its main scheduled catalyst has already passed.

10. Corn

Corn trades near $4.42–$4.45 per bushel (December contract), with good-to-excellent crop-condition ratings holding steady at 67% as of early July. The crop is now entering its pollination window — the two-to-three-week stretch when weather has the biggest impact on eventual yield. A recent heat wave is moderating into a pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which is generally favorable for corn at this stage. As with wheat, there’s no fresh WASDE report this week to serve as a scheduled catalyst, so corn’s price action is essentially a real-time bet on whether the current favorable weather pattern holds through this yield-critical period.

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Cross-Asset Connections

Markets rarely move in isolation — understanding how different assets relate to each other helps explain why several pairs and commodities can move together on the same news.

Dollar and gold: Gold usually moves opposite the dollar. Because gold’s positioning is already stretched this week, this relationship is worth watching especially closely around Tuesday’s CPI print and Warsh’s testimony.

Oil and the Canadian dollar: Higher oil prices normally support CAD given Canada’s energy exports, but this week that relationship is being overshadowed by the more direct threat of a 35% US tariff.

Copper and the Australian dollar: Record copper prices and inventories have been a tailwind for AUD given Australia’s mining exports — Thursday’s China data will test whether that support is fundamentally justified.

Risk sentiment and the yen: A calm VIX (market volatility gauge) around 16–17 continues to support “carry trades” — borrowing in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies — which helps explain USD/JPY’s and AUD/JPY’s underlying strength.

Equities and the dollar: The S&P 500’s record-adjacent close alongside a stable dollar reflects a market pricing in a smooth economic outcome — a read that this week’s CPI print and Warsh’s testimony could either reinforce or challenge.

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Biggest Risks to Watch

A hawkish Warsh surprise: If the new Fed chair’s testimony reads more hawkish than expected, expect a broad dollar rally and pressure on gold’s already-crowded long positioning.

Gold’s stretched positioning: With CFTC data showing speculative net-longs near 194,000 contracts, gold is more vulnerable than usual to a sharp, fast reversal.

The collapsed Iran ceasefire: Strait of Hormuz disruption risk is live, not theoretical, after the ceasefire ended on July 8 — any further escalation or de-escalation could move oil prices sharply in either direction.

The Canada tariff deadline: Trump’s threatened 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective August 1, is an active, unresolved negotiation that could move USD/CAD well before the deadline arrives.

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Best Bullish and Bearish Trade Ideas This Week

As always, these are educational scenarios based on the current research, not personalized financial advice — markets can and do move against any scenario.

Top 5 Bullish Opportunities

Asset	Direction	Confidence	Primary Catalyst	Key Risk
USD/JPY	Bullish	66%	Widest G10 rate gap (Fed vs. BoJ); potential hawkish Warsh testimony	A dovish Warsh surprise or Japanese FX intervention
AUD/USD	Bullish	64%	RBA on hold amid record copper prices, ahead of Thursday’s China GDP data	A weak China GDP/activity print
USD/CAD	Bullish (USD)	65%	Trump’s threatened 35% Canada tariff, effective Aug 1	A negotiated de-escalation
Brent Crude	Bullish	60%	Collapsed Iran ceasefire revives Strait of Hormuz risk	A renewed ceasefire or de-escalation
NZD/USD	Bullish	60%	Follow-through repricing after the RBNZ’s July 8 hike to 2.50%	A hawkish Warsh testimony or weak China data

Top 5 Bearish Opportunities

Asset	Direction	Confidence	Primary Catalyst	Key Risk
Gold	Bearish (tactical)	55%	Heavily stretched net-long positioning (~194,000 CFTC contracts)	A dovish Warsh appearance extends the rally instead
GBP/USD	Bearish	55%	No domestic UK catalyst; pure follower of a potentially hawkish dollar move	A dovish Warsh testimony lifts GBP instead
Palladium	Bearish (relative)	50%	Structural EV-driven demand erosion caps upside	Supply disruption from Russia or South Africa
Corn	Bearish (relative)	46%	Favorable weather during pollination caps upside on steady ratings	A return to hot, dry conditions
Wheat	Bearish (relative)	48%	No fresh WASDE catalyst; prior shortfall largely priced in	Worse-than-expected crop-condition updates

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Key Takeaways

• No G10 central bank makes a rate decision this week — the BoC, ECB, RBA, BoE, BoJ, and Fed all meet later in July.
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress for the first time: House Financial Services on Tuesday, July 14, and Senate Banking on Wednesday, July 15.
• June CPI lands just 90 minutes before Warsh’s House testimony, with consensus expecting headline inflation near 3.9% year-over-year and core near 2.9%.
• China’s Q2 GDP and June activity data release Thursday, July 16, directly affecting AUD, NZD, the yuan, and copper.
• Gold sits on unusually crowded net-long positioning (~194,000 CFTC contracts), making it more exposed than usual to a sharp reversal.
• Brent crude has climbed to around $75.50/barrel after the US–Iran ceasefire collapsed on July 8, reviving Strait of Hormuz risk.
• President Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canadian goods, effective August 1, already moving USD/CAD.
• Copper’s finalized Section 232 tariffs have pushed COMEX inventories to a record 650,000 tons.
• The RBNZ hiked its Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on July 8, just ahead of this window, with no further review until September 2.
• Agricultural markets are comparatively quiet this week with no fresh WASDE report; wheat and corn trade on crop-progress and weather updates instead.

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Frequently Asked Questions

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Conclusion

The week of July 13–17, 2026 proves that a quiet rate-decision calendar doesn’t mean a quiet market. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut congressional testimony, paired directly with June’s CPI report, is this week’s single most important scheduled event, with Thursday’s China GDP release a close second given its direct line to the copper-and-commodity-currency trade. Add in a collapsed Iran ceasefire, a fresh US tariff threat against Canada, and a gold market sitting on unusually crowded positioning, and it’s clear this week carries plenty of real risk even without a single central bank meeting on the calendar. As always, treat every scenario here as a starting point for your own research, not a guarantee of what will happen — and keep an eye on how Tuesday’s CPI print and Warsh’s testimony actually land, since that sequence is likely to set the tone for markets through the rest of the month.

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